This week's Asia economic calendar is brimming with key events, from GDP releases and trade figures to crucial central bank decisions.

Japan and Thailand kicked things off with Q4 GDP figures, followed by a wave of trade data from Singapore, Indonesia, and South Korea.

Monetary policy will be a key theme, with interest rate decisions expected from Australia, New Zealand, and Indonesia. China's loan prime rates will also be closely watched.

Offshore, minutes from the US Federal Reserve's January meeting will be monitored for comments on the likely inflationary impact of President Donald Trump's tariffs.

The week concludes with various data points, including inflation, employment, and business sentiment indicators, providing a comprehensive overview of Asia's economic landscape.

MONDAY, Feb. 17

Japan's economy grew 2.8% in the fourth quarter of 2024 from a year earlier, in line with estimates and accelerating from a 1.7% rise in the third quarter, preliminary data showed.

The latest results mark the third consecutive quarter of growth, driven by a robust rebound in capital expenditure. Government spending and private consumption also accelerated. For the first time in five quarters, net trade contributed positively, fueled by continued export growth.

Meanwhile, Thailand's gross domestic product rose 3.2% YoY in Q4, faster than the 3% growth in Q3, but below market expectations of a 3.9% increase.

Full-year GDP grew 2.5% in 2024, up from 2.0% in 2023.

Trade Data Dump

Singapore: Non-oil domestic exports fell 2.1% YoY in January, reversing the 9% rise in December. This decline, the first since October, was driven by lower sales of pharmaceuticals, specialized machinery, and miscellaneous manufactured articles during the Lunar New Year period.

Indonesia: Exports rose 4.68% YoY to $21.45 billion in January, falling short of the 6.99% forecast and slowing from 4.78% growth the previous month. While this marks the tenth consecutive month of export growth, it's the weakest pace since June due mainly to a plunge in oil and gas exports.

South Korea: Exports plummeted 10.3% YoY in January, the sharpest decline since July 2023.

TUESDAY, Feb. 18

The Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rate decision will take center stage on Tuesday.

All of the nation's big four banks -- ANZ, Commonwealth Bank, NAB, and Westpac -- expect the RBA to cut rates by 25 basis points to bring the cash rate target to 4.1% from 4.35%.

Hong Kong's jobs data will also be released on Tuesday.

WEDNESDAY, Feb. 19

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will conduct a monetary policy meeting on Wednesday, during which policymakers may announce an easing.

"We expect the RBNZ will cut the OCR by 50bps to 3.75% at its February policy meeting. The accompanying policy statement is likely to signal further easing is likely over 2025, but at a more gradual pace. We see the RBNZ projecting an end-2025 OCR of 3.25%," Westpac said in a note.

Meanwhile, Bank Indonesia is expected to keep the benchmark rate steady on Wednesday after unexpectedly slashing its official cash rate by 25 basis points to 5.75% in the January meeting.

Japan's trade data and machinery orders are also due midweek. Morgan Stanley predicts machinery orders rose 0.9% month-on-month in December, slowing from 3.4% in November.

THURSDAY, Feb. 20

The People's Bank of China is widely expected to keep the one-year and five-year loan prime rates unchanged at 3.1% and 3.6%, respectively.

Meanwhile, Australia will provide an update on its labor market. The nation's jobless rate may have inched up to 4.1% in January, CommBank Research said in a note, adding that it expects a "softer outturn" in employment growth and an unchanged participation rate of 67.1%.

Additionally, Taiwan will report January export orders, and Malaysia will publish export figures.

"We are expecting [Taiwan's] new orders to contract at 3.3% year-on-year amid the impact from the Lunar New Year as well as the end of export frontloading," ING said in a note.

Other key indicators due Thursday are South Korea's producer prices and consumer confidence data, plus Hong Kong's inflation numbers.

FRIDAY, Feb. 21

Japan will release its January consumer price index. The already-released Tokyo inflation report suggests the national headline inflation rose modestly in the first month of 2025.

"We expect the CPI to rise to 4.0% YoY in January, mainly due to a surge in fresh food prices, including rice, the main staple food item. This will add to the upward pressure on services with a time lag, as eating-out prices are likely to rise," ING said in a note.

Concurrently, Reuters will publish the Tankan Index, a monthly survey of leading Japanese companies for business sentiment.

Meanwhile, Malaysia's inflation rate likely held steady at 1.7% in January, according to estimates from Trading Economics.

The Japan Jibun Bank February Flash PMI, Australia Judo Bank Flash PMI, and India HSBC Flash PMI readouts will also be published on Friday, alongside New Zealand's trade numbers.