Investing.com -- Barclays downgraded Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA) to Equal Weight from Overweight in a note Tuesday, citing policy risks, a lack of major clinical catalysts, and macroeconomic uncertainties that limit the stock’s upside. 

The firm also lowered its price target to $45 following the company’s fourth-quarter 2024 financial update.

“While we continue to believe in MRNA’s differentiated RNA platform, we see limited upside to the stock in the near term,” Barclays (LON:BARC) analysts wrote, pointing to vaccine policy risk in the U.S. and a lack of major near-term clinical milestones.

Moderna’s Phase 3 norovirus vaccine trial (mRNA-1403) was placed on clinical hold due to a case of Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS). 

However, Barclays noted that trial timelines may remain intact, as enrollment in the Northern Hemisphere is complete, and preparations are ongoing for the Southern Hemisphere’s second season enrollment. Management suggested that the GBS case may be unrelated and that it expects no significant impact on the study’s conduct.

Financially, Barclays noted that Moderna’s revenue declined sharply. Fourth-quarter SpikeVax sales came in at $923 million, below Barclays’ estimate of $1.087 billion, and total 2024 product revenue fell 53% year-over-year to $3.1 billion. 

The company maintained its 2025 revenue guidance of $1.5 billion to $2.5 billion, with just $200 million expected in the first half of the year due to the seasonal nature of the respiratory vaccine business.

Despite ongoing cost reduction efforts, Barclays remains cautious, stating that cash break-even is only expected by 2028 and that operating expenses remain elevated. Given the current headwinds, the firm opted to “step to the sideline” on Moderna stock.

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