Nutrien Ltd. NTR recorded fourth-quarter 2024 profits of $118 million or 23 cents per share, down from $176 million or 35 cents per share in the year-ago quarter.

Barring one-time items, adjusted earnings per share were 31 cents. The bottom line missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 33 cents.

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Sales tumbled around 10.3% year over year to $5,079 million in the quarter. Nevertheless, the figure missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $5,151.9 million.

The decline in earnings is primarily due to reduced potash net selling prices and sales volumes, which were slightly offset by greater Retail segment earnings and lower expenses.

NTR’s Segment Highlights

Sales in the Nutrien Ag Solutions (Retail) segment declined 9% year over year to $3,179 million. Retail adjusted EBITDA for the segment increased as a result of lower expenses and higher crop protection and seed margins, including enhanced proprietary product gross margins and improved margins and selling expenses in Brazil. The figure was higher than our estimate of $3,113.2 million.

The Potash division’s sales declined 31% year over year to $536 million, lower than our estimate of $709 million. Potash sales volumes fell from the previous year's record levels, owing to a more restricted fall application window in North America and fewer exports to China and other Asian countries.

Sales in the Nitrogen segment were $1,013 million, up around 6% year over year. Nitrogen sales volumes grew in the fourth quarter, owing to increasing urea production and robust regional demand for ammonia. Sales volumes grew for the full year 2024 primarily due to increased production at NTR’s Trinidad operations and reliability improvements across the North American network, which boosted the availability of upgraded products. The reported figure was lower than our estimate of $1,033.8 million.

Sales in the Phosphate segment were $414 million, down around 22% year over year. The figure was higher than our estimate of $360.1 million. Phosphate sales volumes fell in the fourth quarter and 2024, owing mostly to weather-related incidents and plant outages that reduced output volumes.

NTR’s Financials

At the end of the quarter, Nutrien had cash and cash equivalents of $853 million, down around 9.3% year over year. Long-term debt was $8,881 million, down nearly 0.3% year over year.

Cash provided by operating activities was $3,123 million in the quarter.

NTR’s FY24 Results

Nutrien reported net earnings of $1.36 earnings per share compared with $2.53 a year ago. Adjusted earnings per share were $3.47 compared with $4.44 a year ago. The company recorded total sales of around $26 billion for the year (down 11% year over year), with adjusted EBITDA reaching roughly $5.4 billion.

NTR’s Guidance

Nutrien projects Retail adjusted EBITDA in the range of $1.65-$1.85 billion for 2025. The company anticipates increased crop nutrient sales volumes, ongoing expansion of its proprietary products and additional margin recovery in Brazil. It anticipates foreign exchange headwinds in its international retail operations, as well as the lack of asset sales and other income items recognized in 2024, totaling about $75 million. 

The projected potash sales volume range of 13.6-14.4 million tons is consistent with its global shipments outlook and takes into consideration some uncertainty about the potential imposition and impact of U.S. tariffs, as well as global supply availability. 

Nitrogen sales volume projection of 10.7-11.2 million tons is based on sustained reliability improvements and increased operating rates at NTR’s North American operations.

The phosphate sales volume projection of 2.35-2.55 million tons implies reduced production at the company’s White Springs facility in the first half of 2025 and higher operating rates in the second half compared with the previous year.

Total capital expenditures of $2- $2.1 billion are projected to be lower than last year. 

NTR’s Stock Price Performance

Nutrien’s shares have lost 1.9% in the past year compared with the industry’s 2.4% decline.

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NTR’s Zacks Rank & Key Picks

NTR currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).

Better-ranked stocks worth a look in the basic materials space are ICL Group Ltd.  ICL, Fortuna Mining Corp. FSM and Kronos Worldwide KRO.

ICL is slated to report fourth-quarter results on Feb. 26. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter earnings is pegged at six cents per share. ICL beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the last four quarters, with the average earnings surprise being 18.1%. ICL currently carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

Fortuna is scheduled to release fourth-quarter results on March 5. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for FSM’s fourth-quarter earnings is pegged at 16 cents per share. FSM, a Zacks Rank #2 stock, has gained around 64.6% in the past year. FSM beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the last four quarters while missing twice, with the average earnings surprise being 53.5%.

Kronos is expected to report fourth-quarter results on March 5. The consensus estimate for KRO’s fourth-quarter earnings is pegged at 11 cents per share. KRO, carrying a Zacks Rank of 2 at present, beat the consensus estimate in three of the last four quarters while missing once, with the average earnings surprise being 41.7%. 

 

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