The outlook for the crude oil market remains uncertain and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries is expected to delay the production hikes planned for early April, according to a Friday report from ANZ Research.
OPEC's ability to phase out production cuts without disrupting the oil market will become increasingly difficult with the economic backdrop containing significant uncertainties, particularly with the US facing potential risks from rapid policy shifts and a brewing global trade war under President Trump.
Geopolitical risks further complicate the outlook, the report added. US actions on Iran, renewed sanctions on Russia and the halt of US purchases of Venezuelan crude oil will add to the complexity. US President Donald Trump is applying to Saudi Arabia and the OPEC+ alliance to lower oil prices.
Additionally, OPEC member states face rising breakeven levels for their oil, putting pressure on their fiscal budgets. These elevated budgetary needs may mean several OPEC members will focus on maximizing revenue.
The US is not expected to have much success in boosting domestic oil supply.
ANZ Research said that its base case is for China's oil demand growth to be slightly higher in the current year at 300,000 barrels of oil per day. However, risks may appear skewed to the downside.
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