Participants

Kenneth Hvid; President, Chief Executive Officer; Teekay Corp

Christian Waldergrave; Director of Research; Teekay Corp

Omar Nochta; Analyst; Jefferies

Ken Hoexter; Analyst; Bank of America

Presentation

Operator

Please stand by we're about to begin. welcome to the Teekay Corp fourth quarter 2024 earnings results conference call [Operator Instructions] now for opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turn the call over to the company. Please go ahead.

Before we begin, I would like to direct all participants to our website at www.tk.com, where you'll find a copy of the TK Group's fourth quarter and annual 2024 earnings presentation. Kenneth will review this presentation during today's conference call.
Please allow me to remind you that our discussion today contains forward-looking statements. Actual results may differ materially from results projected by those forward-looking statements. additional information concerning factors that could cause actual results to materially differ from those in the forward-looking statements is contained in the TK Corporation and TK Tanker's fourth quarter and annual 2024 earnings releases and the TK Group earnings presentation available on our website. I will now turn the call over to Kenneth Vid, TK Corporations, and TK Tankers, President and CEO to begin.

Kenneth Hvid

Thank you, Ed. Hello, everyone, and thank you very much for joining us today for the CK Group's fourth quarter and annual 2024 earnings conference call. joining me on the call today for the Q&A session is Brody Spears, TK Corporations, and TK Tanga CFO, Ryan Hamilton, our VP Finance and Corporate Development, and Christian Waldegrave, our director of research.
Starting on slide 3 of the presentation, we will cover TK Tango's recent highlights. TK Tanger's reported adjusted net income of $52 million or $1.50 per share in the fourth quarter, and for the full year 2024, adjusted net income of $355 million or $10.31 per share.
Despite softer than expected spot rates towards the end of the year, the company still generated $69 million in free cash flow in the fourth quarter and $415 million for the year. in the last few weeks as part of our opportunistic approach to ongoing fleet management, we sold 2 2009 built Suez maxis and 1 2006 built ER2 for a combined $96 million.
Two of these vessels have already been delivered to their buyers, while the third is expected to be delivered by mid March upon completion of its current voyage.
Including the previously announced two vessels we sold during Q4, we've sold a total of 2005 to 2009 built vessels for combined proceeds of $160 million resulting in expected book gains on sale of nearly $60 million. further, I'm pleased to report that just today we lifted subjects and signed an MOA to acquire a modern LR2 tanker, which we expect to close in the second quarter.
These sales and purchase are part of our ongoing fleet management and fleet renewal plan where we naturally sell all the vessels and acquire more Martin on it over time when the opportunity is right.
In addition, we have now completed TNK's acquisition of the TK Australia business and the transfer of all the remaining management services companies not previously owned by TNK. These transactions transformed TK Tankers into a fully integrated shipping company and the sole operating platform within the TK Group.
We also made a passive investment in Armore Shipping Corporation, where we now own 5.1% of the company. Historically, TK has had investments in adjacent sectors to our medium sized crude tanker business, including some exposure to the MR sector in the past. We believe that this investment represents good value in the product sector.
Looking at our first quarter to date spot rates, our rates to date are slightly below our fourth quarter levels but remain volatile and trending upwards based on the latest Clarkson's report spot rates. Although these rates are down from historical highs from 2023 and 2024, current rates are well above our fleet's free cash flow break even levels, meaning tankers continues to generate substantial free cash flow and earnings in the current market environment. We will discuss the drivers of the market in subsequent flights.
Lastly, TK Tango's declared its quarterly fixed dividend of $0.25 per share, payable in March, and for the full year, we have paid $3 per share in dividends.
Moving to slide 4, we look at recent developments in the spot market.
Weak Chinese oil demand during the latter part of the year weighed on the VOCC market, which in turn had a dampening effect on Suzak and Aromax stock rates, while seasonal weather delays failed to give any uplift to the tanga market during the winter months. Rates were still above long-term average levels and well above TNK's free cash flow break even of approximately $14,300 per day.
Average Q1 to date spot tanker rates are slightly below fourth quarter levels but have been trending upwards in recent weeks. The imposition of additional US sanctions on 153 tankers servicing the Russian oil trade has increased rate volatility, particularly in the larger crude tanker asset classes, as replacement shipping capacity was booked for transporting oil to China and India.
In addition, Atlantic-based crude oil has been attractively priced when compared to Middle Eastern crude in recent weeks, which has opened the albatross for the long haul movement of oil from the Atlantic basin to Asia. This has been positive for 1 mile demand in the near term, particularly for the LCC and Suezmax tankers.
Turning to slide 5, we look at some of the geopolitical events that are currently unfolding, which seems to change day by day, and there are likely more questions and answers on how things will progress over the course of this year. as highlighted by the slide, there are an unusually large number of factors this year which could influence the direction of the tanger market.
I won't go into every single point in detail, but it's worth highlighting three of the key factors which we believe could impact the tanker bar, depending on how they unfold in the coming weeks and months.
Firstly, the red highlights the current conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East. Starting with the war in Ukraine, the situation has become extremely dynamic in recent weeks. While we do not know how events will unfold, will continue to unfold in the future, we do know that there could be wide ranging consequences for both tankers on mild demand and the future of the shadow fleet of ships that are currently servicing Russian oil exports should a peace agreement be reached.
In the meantime, we can envision scenarios whereby sanctions against Russia are either tightened or loosened depending on how discussions between the various parties develop. for example, we understand that the EU is planning a new round of sanctions next week which will include another 73 ships being added to the sanctions list.
These sanctions could further impact Russia's ability to export oil, as evidenced by the last round of sanctions in January, where logistical constraints meant that India and China had to source replacement barrels from the Middle East and Atlantic basin on non-sanctioned vessels to make up for the shortfall in Russian supply.
In the Middle East, the recent ceasefire between Israel and Hamas has led to the Houthi group in Yemen pledging to stop attacks on shipping. this may eventually result in the resumption of tanker transit through the Red Sea region, which, depending on how things unfold, could impact seaborne trade patterns and reduce tanker to mile demand. However, the situation is fragile, and for the time being, we expect that owners like TK and cargo Inter will continue to stay away from the region until there's more certainty around the safety of crews, vessels, and cargos.
Secondly, the yellow highlights the impact of sanctions on crude oil exports from Russia, Iran, and Venezuela, as well as the fleet of ships servicing them. I've already touched on the situation with regards to Russia. But another key development this year is the return of the United States' maximum pressure campaign on Iran in a bid to reduce Iranian oil exports to zero.
In 2024, Iranian crude oil exports averaged 1.5 million barrels per day, the majority of which went to China. tougher sanctions on Iranian crude oil exports could therefore lead China to import oil from other sources via the compliant fleet, which would be positive for tanker demand.
Finally, the blue highlights the potential impact of tariffs on oil trade flows. In early February, the US announced 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada with a lower 10% tariff on Canadian energy, though the implementation of these tariffs was suspended for 30 days. These tariffs come into force, we could see Canada and Mexico looking to divert some of their crude exports away from the US to other regions such as Europe and Asia, while the US refiners may have to find replacement barrels from further afield, both of which would be positive for tanker on mile command.
Regarding Canadian exports, we know that there are plans to commence nighttime loading from the Trans Mountain pipeline terminal in Vancouver later this year, which would allow the terminal to reach 28 to 30 Aromax cargo per month compared to '22 to '24 at present.
It is difficult to predict 2025 impacts, but due to political uncertainty and changes to seaborne oil trade patterns usually increase tanker market volatility and supply chain inefficiencies.
Turning to slide 6, we look at the underlying tang of demand and supply factors which we believe continue to support a balanced market, notwithstanding the geopolitical events that are just touched on. starting with tanker demand drivers, global oil consumption is projected to grow by $1.3 million barrels per day in 2025. Virtually all of this demand growth is being driven by non-OC.
OECD countries led by Asia global oil supply is also set to grow with production from non-OPEC plus countries set to increase by $1.5 million barrels per day in 2025, led by the United States, Brazil, Norway, Canada, and Guyana.
Given that these sources of oil are mostly in the Atlantic basin, while oil demand growth is focused on Asia, we expect an increase in long haul crude oil movements from west to east, which should boost tanker to mile demand. The OPEC plus group could also provide additional seaborne transportation volumes should they start unwinding their voluntary oil supply costs from April 2025 onwards, consistent with the most recently announced plan.
Turning to fleet supply, mid-sized tanger fleet growth is expected to remain relatively low in the medium term. As shown by the chart on the bottom right of the slide, the current size of the tango order book is relatively similar to the fleet of older tankers turning 20 during the same time period, with 307 mid-sized tankers currently on order for delivery through 2028 compared with 312 existing.
Mid-sized tankers that will turn 20 over the same time frame. In addition, there are 301 mid-sized tankers which are already over the age of 20, the majority of which operate as part of the shadow fleet servicing sanctioned trains. And which are facing increased scrutiny from US and European authorities. In some, assuming no scrapping, we could have over 600 mid-sized tankers or approximately 30% of the fleet over the age of 20 years old in 3 years' time, which is unprecedented. And for comparison, at the end of 2021, there were around 1,150 mid-sized tankers over the age of 20. this illustrates the scale of the excess fleet supply that could be phased out should trade normalize.
While it is difficult to predict what will ultimately happen with the shadow fleet, and it is uncertain when we may see an uptake in vessel recycling, we believe that with a manageable order book, a lack of available shipyard capacity until 2028, and a tanker fleet, which is currently the oldest in well over 20 years, tanker fleet growth will remain at low levels over the next 3 years.
In some, while there are a wide range of potential outcomes from the various current issues impacting global trade, security, and energy, we remain encouraged by the underlying tanger supply and demand fundamentals which we believe point towards a balanced tanger market over the medium term. turning to slide 7, we highlight how TK Tankers is well positioned for any market conditions.
With our high operating leverage and a low free cash flow break even of $14,300 per day, we can generate significant cash flow in almost any market conditions. To emphasize, every $5000 an increase in spot rates above our break even produces $2.15 per share of annual free cash flow, or over 5% on a free cash flow yield basis.
Combined with our strong balance sheet, we've built optionality and capacity to maximize shareholder value in any market outcome. With that operator, we're now available to take steps.

Question and Answer Session

Operator

Thank you [Operator Instructions] We'll move to our first question from Jon Chappell with Evercore ISI.

Thank you. Good morning, Kenneth, you touched on it briefly, in your introduction, but if you could just, provide a little bit more insight on the Ardmore investment. Just seems a little curious, given, it's a part of the tanker sector that TK hasn't really been involved in much in the past. I get it's cheap, so it's TNK, and, it's also just like a lot less liquid than TNK as an investment's concern. So maybe explain the thought process behind that and also, how you looked at that investment vis a vis buying back your own shares.

Kenneth Hvid

Yeah, thanks, John. Good morning. I'm expecting that question. I just want to emphasize that, our number one priority is obviously our core fleet and our core business at at TK with the fleet renewal, which we get a chance to discuss as well. But, the investment here is not a straying really away from what we've done in the past, as you'll remember, we've always had some MR exposure.
We haven't had it for some time. We looked around, the market was up for some time. When it took a big dip last year towards the end, we thought that was just very good value, and we made a very small investment as you can see in that company relative to our asset base here. And it was always meant to be small. We just, it was opportunistic, and it was a financial investment. And then what happened was, as we saw last week.
A more announced that they That brought back 4% of their shares and that kind of falls into the 5.1%. But I just want to emphasize it's a small investment. We think it's good value and when you have a bit of investment here, I think it keeps us focused on the adjacent sectors in a different manner. Okay.

And then in my follow up, you just, announced this morning, the new LR 2 that you're purchasing that you're going to get in the 2nd quarter, you're still selling, at a quicker pace than you're, replacing, which I think makes sense, in this asset value environment so. Kind of a similar question, how do you think about the continued pace of renewal, buying versus selling, and then also in the last two years in the first quarter you've had special dividends.
I would think that given the cash balance today, the proceeds that you're raising from these vessel sales, you're even in even in a stronger position, but on the other hand, the market's a bit more uncertain, so, a lot in there, but kind of, pace of replacement and and capital allocation, within that.

Kenneth Hvid

Yeah, great questions. And obviously what we're spending all our time, discussing and, making decisions around here. and I would say on the fleet renewal, you're right. And as I commented on in the remarks and the Q&A at last quarter, we're looking at selling some of our older vessels and we're looking at buying. And some newer vessels, and that's all part of being an operating company, obviously, and the renewal of our fleet, as you will know, we've been sweating our assets heavily over the past three years, and I think that's been great. We've also been running off ship years and we think now is a pretty good time to start leaning in. You're correctly pointing out that we are.
More vessels than than we're buying up to now. If you look at it in ship years, we are, we're actually buying more shipyards and we're selling. So I think it just speaks to how we're trying to manage where we are in the cycle and at the same time trying to renew the the the fleet here. So we're leaning in to your second question on on capital allocation.
It's clear we're in a in a very strong position when we When we embarked on this cycle a couple of years ago here, we always had it as a stated objective that we wanted to rebuild financial strength and financial flexibility at at TK. And, I think everybody, anybody looking at our van you can say that that's what we've done, and we're pretty excited about that.
That's what you need to do in a cyclical business that is capital intensive, I think the next couple of years are going to be interesting. So clearly, for people that have the capital to make investments, I think we are in a position where we can hopefully, make some investments that's going to create some good long term shareholder value.
And then that brings you to the question that you're asking around special dividends, which is always part Of the capital allocation plan, as we're not the company out there that's paying out all our earnings, and we've been very clear on that from the beginning. And we have a fixed dividend, which we also declared this quarter and, once a year we have the discussion with the board, whether there's a special dividend coming and that's on the agenda for this board meeting that's coming up soon.

Okay, thanks for the. Thoughts. Thanks for you.

Operator

We'll move next to Omar Nochta with Jefferies.

Omar Nochta

Thank you. Hi Kenneth, and team, a couple from my side, maybe just first kind of a follow up to John's questions and then a market related, question. But yeah, just kind of on the last topic, obviously you're flush with cash, no debt, plenty of liquidity, and you know the cash is coming in much faster than you're able to deploy it maybe just kind of bigger picture on how you see TNK from here, do you see the platform maybe evolving in terms of.
The Ardmore stake perhaps is not a one-off and that you have your operating tanker fleet, you've got the marine business with TK Australia. Do you think that you're going to have a growing portfolio approach perhaps where you're taking stakes in other equities and that's sort of a an avenue of exposure to the sector without having to to to put capital to work physically.

Kenneth Hvid

Yeah, no, I don't, I think I just want to emphasize that the more investment is really small in our, total, capital allocation, plan here. The number one priority is obviously looking after our our core fleet. We are an operating company and we are keen to deploy capital in a manner where we invest in our operating platform, which as is fully integrated with.
Technical management and all the commercial management. So we're looking to add assets that we, where we can bring value to those assets by putting them on our platform. And that's obviously not by investing in other companies. So I just want to be very clear on that that that that's our number one priority.
As you point out, it's, we, we're generating cash faster than we're able to deploy it. I would say it's not a problem to deploy cash. I think it's, it may be hard to keep patients in, to be patient in the market, like we're in, but we are, and I mean, we've been through a lot of cycles over the past 50 years as a company, and many of us have been through a few cycles. So I think we know that to be patient sometimes pays off and but that's exactly what we're doing here. So I don't think it's a matter of that we cannot deploy it. I think it's a matter of being patient.

Omar Nochta

Okay, yeah, thank you. And then just, 11 quick follow up just on that note and appreciate your comments of, having taken a sub 5% stake but by virtue of the buyback you you've now had to file the 13G. Do I take it that this is just as you say it's a small opportunistic holding with no plans perhaps of wanting to to increase the size of that position.

Kenneth Hvid

Yeah, that's right. I had a fellow CEO called yesterday and we talked about it, but, they clearly saw that there was good value there as well and it wasn't really our fault, so yeah, you're right.

Omar Nochta

Okay, all right, and then if I could just ask a question about the market and you referenced this in your presentation, just all the sanctioned discussion and how potentially there's 73 ships coming on, into sanction next week. I think you said from the EU just like, I guess, in general, given your significant kind of market presence within the Aromaxes.
The 150 or so tankers that were sanctioned in January by the US, Obviously there's all kinds of uncertainty as to how long those sanctions may hold. We just want to get a sense from you, given, your active participation in this space. Have you seen an effect or an impact of those sanctions yet on the Aromax market? And then how do you see it affecting things if those get lifted?

Christian Waldergrave

Yeah, hi, Omar, I think we have seen an impact from the sanctions that were placed on January 10th. of those ships that were sanctioned, it was over 150 tankers, and the majority of those were serving the Russian Far East trade out of Cosmino.
And in the weeks following that, we've certainly seen difficulties in Russia getting that all out of Cosmino into China, and we've also seen, India as well having to look at alternative sources. So if you look at what's happened in the market over the past month.
We are seeing a bit of a drop in Russian exports and and Chinese and Indian buyers are having to look for alternative sources of crude. So we've seen an increase in volumes from the Middle East, but also from West Africa and other parts of the Atlantic to make up for the shortfall here, which is why we've seen some volatility on the VLCC side in particular.
Which is then helping out the Suez maxes a little bit as well. So the OFAC sanctions, they are having an impact, as you said, we don't know what the future is from here, whether we're going to get more sanctions or or relaxation on sanctions, but as Kenneth said in his remarks, all this uncertainty does create volatility, when you have changes to trade patterns, disruptions. It all speaks to volatility. So we are seeing a bit of an impact in the freight market, but, as you said, very difficult to sort of project forward how this is going to evolve in the coming months.

Omar Nochta

Good thanks thanks Christian. I appreciate the the color there and and kind of thank you as well. I'll turn it over.
Thanks.

Operator

We'll move next to Ken Hoexter with Bank of America.

Ken Hoexter

Hey, great, good morning. If, I guess talking about the rates, right, so we had a 24,28. $1000 per day for the swis max Aromax at just about 2/3 and just over half of the quarterly days booked that's down a bit from the fourth quarter, but yet we're talking about more sanctions having a positive impact, seasonally colder weather, increasing power needs. So is the additional capacity creating the bigger overhang? What's driving what's your thoughts on what's driving the rates pressure on rates near term here?

Kenneth Hvid

Yeah, I mean, for sure we, I think in tourist maxes there was a weaker finish to 2024 and a weaker start to 2025. And I think what we've seen now is an uplift certainly this week, the fixture list is significantly stronger than what we average. So I think what's driving that as as we talked about in prepared remarks can is really the, where's the, arbitrass that that's moving off and the VLCCs that's been moving up and then some replacement barrels that that's really beginning to kick in now, as you recall, the sanctioned vessels, there was a bit of a delay on and they needed to offload and then there was a scrambling for cargos and that's driving it. So we just see more cargo demand in that direction.

Ken Hoexter

Okay, and then if we think about, I guess the delays in the tariffs and some of the delays are going to, if we start getting to a point of peace in between Russia and Ukraine, and that's going to take some time to develop the same thing in the Middle East with the Houthis, what, what's your thought on how that pans out, what shifts you see first, how quick I guess based on historical experience.

Kenneth Hvid

Yeah, I think that's where we're in unprecedented territory. We haven't really, as I think back historically had this situation before. As I said, if we just look at the medium sized tankers, what really stands out is that before the invasion, as I said we just had just over 100 ships that were over 20 years old, and they were typically trading.
And with with charterers that didn't have the typical age restriction and they were typically lifting cargoes from from countries where you had various degrees of sanctioned oil and of course the what what the the war created was this demand for additional vessels to facilitate that trade and as we point out that fleet has now grown up, well, the fleet is larger, but The number of vessels over 20 today is over 300 vessels, right? So it's grown just in 3 years from 100 to 300 basically because nothing has been scrapped.
And what we are then also saying is that if that continues the sanctions, even though you can argue that the parallel figure is maybe being becoming. But then you have another round of sanctioned vessels that are that are taking place, and then there's demand for more vessels that are not sanctions that can carry the oil. So as long as that persists, I think there is a demand for the older tankers.
So if nothing happens and we didn't scrap any vessels in that category, as we point out, we would actually be at 6,000 vessels that are over 20. And there's nothing in history that that kind of tells us what, how quickly that can unfold. I think what we can say is that if the trade normalizes and what we all are subjected to in kind of the regular trade, I mean, we do see the The age restrictions that especially at 20 degrees starts kicking in and in some cases with some charters even earlier than that.
So there is a lot of vessels here that I think will either be operating with very low utilization or will be parked somewhere or will start going to the scrap yards. At what pace that that's going to happen, I think that's the million dollar question. And I think it's the right question to ask. But, I'm afraid we don't have the answer.

Ken Hoexter

Appreciate that. That's true. It's an awful lot compared to normal. So maybe just two quick ones just to wrap up the seasonality that you normally see in in through 12 into. Maybe you could just remind us of that. And then, you mentioned the vessel purchased. Are you seeing a lot of, especially with that much overcapacity potentially hitting and what that could do to rates are you seeing more books come across your desk in terms of of vessel sale opportunities?

Kenneth Hvid

Yeah, good question. So first of all, just on where we see the race, I think we kind of touched on it and we, when we looked at it, typically when you come into Q4 and go out of Q1, you kind of have rates that that start low and go up and then they start coming down as you get into Que2.
This.
Two quarters we've kind of seen the inverse of that, I would say so a little bit unusual, but we've had unusual years in the past couple of years, but that's kind of where where rates have been going. So we definitely it looks like we're moving stronger into Q2, but it's kind of the inverse of what we saw last year.
And, in terms of S&P opportunities, yeah, market has come down on vessels, which is also why we're beginning to lean in a bit as we, as we said to John, I mean, and as we talked about on the last quarter, we We kind of see ourselves maybe selling a little bit faster than we're buying, but we have fleet replenishment and we haven't done a lot in recent years. And, we've seen prices, come into kind of a zip code that we're beginning to like again. So that's why we required 111 ship today and then we'll continue to look for opportunities.
When people have had a couple of good years, as most tank owners have had, some owners have different priorities and as we continue to say, I mean, we're an operating company. We like to have a certain scale in the market. So we'll obviously be focused on on trying to renew the fleet, but we'll do it at a very measured pace here.

Ken Hoexter

Very helpful appreciate the thoughts thanks guys.

Kenneth Hvid

Thanks, appreciate it. Thanks man.

Operator

And that will conclude the Q&A portion of today's call. I will now turn the call back to the company for any
additional or closing remarks.

Kenneth Hvid

Thank you very much for listening in to our call today. We look forward to reporting back to you next forum. thank you. Have a good day.

Operator

Thank you ladies and gentlemen that will conclude today's call. You may now disconnect. okay.