HF Sinclair Corporation (NYSE:DINO) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 4.5% to US$36.30 in the week after its latest annual results. Statutory earnings per share fell badly short of expectations, coming in at US$0.91, some 28% below analyst forecasts, although revenues were okay, approximately in line with analyst estimates at US$29b. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Check out our latest analysis for HF Sinclair

Taking into account the latest results, HF Sinclair's eleven analysts currently expect revenues in 2025 to be US$28.7b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to bounce 112% to US$2.00. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$28.6b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.17 in 2025. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a small dip in their earnings per share forecasts.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at US$46.66, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on HF Sinclair, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$58.00 and the most bearish at US$31.00 per share. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await HF Sinclair shareholders.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the HF Sinclair's past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that HF Sinclair's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 0.5% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 20% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 4.5% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that HF Sinclair is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for HF Sinclair. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for HF Sinclair going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 2 warning signs for HF Sinclair that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.