We feel now is a pretty good time to analyse Aemetis, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:AMTX) business as it appears the company may be on the cusp of a considerable accomplishment. Aemetis, Inc. operates as a renewable natural gas and renewable fuels company. The US$102m market-cap company posted a loss in its most recent financial year of US$46m and a latest trailing-twelve-month loss of US$97m leading to an even wider gap between loss and breakeven. As path to profitability is the topic on Aemetis' investors mind, we've decided to gauge market sentiment. In this article, we will touch on the expectations for the company's growth and when analysts expect it to become profitable.

Check out our latest analysis for Aemetis

Aemetis is bordering on breakeven, according to the 5 American Oil and Gas analysts. They expect the company to post a final loss in 2025, before turning a profit of US$18m in 2026. The company is therefore projected to breakeven just over a year from today. What rate will the company have to grow year-on-year in order to breakeven on this date? Using a line of best fit, we calculated an average annual growth rate of 56%, which is extremely buoyant. Should the business grow at a slower rate, it will become profitable at a later date than expected.

We're not going to go through company-specific developments for Aemetis given that this is a high-level summary, though, bear in mind that by and large an energy business has lumpy cash flows which are contingent on the natural resource and stage at which the company is operating. This means that a high growth rate is not unusual, especially if the company is currently in an investment period.

One thing we would like to bring into light with Aemetis is it currently has negative equity on its balance sheet. This can sometimes arise from accounting methods used to deal with accumulated losses from prior years, which are viewed as liabilities carried forward until it cancels out in the future. These losses tend to occur only on paper, however, in other cases it can be forewarning.

Next Steps:

There are too many aspects of Aemetis to cover in one brief article, but the key fundamentals for the company can all be found in one place – Aemetis' company page on Simply Wall St. We've also put together a list of relevant factors you should look at:

1. Historical Track Record: What has Aemetis' performance been like over the past? Go into more detail in the past track record analysis and take a look at the free visual representations of our analysis for more clarity.
2. Management Team: An experienced management team on the helm increases our confidence in the business – take a look at who sits on Aemetis' board and the CEO’s background.
3. Other High-Performing Stocks: Are there other stocks that provide better prospects with proven track records? Explore our free list of these great stocks here.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.