The latest Market Talks covering Commodities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

0910 ET - U.S. natural gas picks up from yesterday's retreat with a widening inventory deficit keeping futures well above $4/mmBtu across the curve. This week's Arctic weather is expected to be reflected in a seventh straight triple-digit storage draw in next week's EIA report, and winter conditions are seen extending into March. "After the warm spell, some predict it will get cold again. This expectation is maintaining the demand for natural gas," Phil Flynn of the Price Futures Group says in a note. The Nymex front month is up 2.9% at $4.273/mmBtu. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

0855 ET - With potash appearing to make a comeback, Nutrien is positioned to benefit. In a Raymond James report, Steve Hansen says he sees tangible signs of life in the global potash markets, including solid demand and rising prices across most global regions. Nutrien management also sees pricing momentum continuing in 2025, Hansen says, thanks to strong grower affordability as crop prices rise, strong demand from Brazil and Southeast Asia, and balanced inventory levels across key markets such as China, India and Southeast Asia. Hansen says that other key providers in Laos and Russia are currently facing operational challenges and maintenance outages. (adriano.marchese@wsj.com)

0717 ET - Base metal prices fall, with LME three-month copper down 0.2% at $9,535.50 a metric ton and LME three-month aluminum down 1.3% at $2,695 a ton. However, the base metals complex is set to end the week higher on mounting concerns of trade wars and a generally weaker U.S. dollar, with copper up 0.7% on week and aluminum up 2.3% on week. Among North American copper miners, 2024 copper production was on average 5% below original guidance, and 2025 guidance was 5% below consensus estimates, RBC Capital Markets analysts say in a note. This likely reflects more conservatism on guidance from miners and more challenging mining. Some recent positive signs around U.S.-China relations are constructive for metals and the fundamentals for copper look solid, though uncertainty remains short-term, RBC adds. (joseph.hoppe@wsj.com)

0640 ET - Gold futures slip, but remain close to record highs. Futures are down 0.25% at $2,948.70 a troy ounce after a fresh high of $2,973.40/oz in the prior session. The precious metal is set to finish the week higher on safe-haven demand and attention from U.S. President Trump's administration, SP Angel analysts say in a note. Trump insisted he would "make sure the gold is there" when asked about concerns over the Fort Knox gold supply and the rally gained steam after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent mentioned monetizing the U.S. balance sheet, SP Angel says. However, Bessent dismissed revaluing U.S. gold reserves, and ruled out gold as an asset for a new U.S. sovereign wealth fund, SP Angel writes. Consistent central bank purchases and Chinese consumer buying also continue to support gold, SP Angel adds. (joseph.hoppe@wsj.com)

0516 ET - Palm oil ended higher, supported by an improving regional economic landscape and the potential for short-covering activities ahead of the weekend, which could provide a supportive tone to the market, according to Kenanga Futures analysts in a commentary. Looking ahead, the next key resistance is at MYR4,700/ton, according to Phillip Nova analyst Lim Tai An. A successful breakout above this level could propel prices to MYR4,770/ton, while failure to break through would likely lead to a retracement towards the MYR4,550 level, the analyst says. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for May delivery rose MYR22 to MYR4,664/ton. (tracy.qu@wsj.com)

0511 ET - OPEC+ is expected to delay the output hike planned for early April amid an uncertain economic and geopolitical outlook, according to analysts at ANZ Research. "The downside for prices is high if OPEC proceeds with production hikes," they say. The cartel and its allies face potential challenges from shifting U.S. policy and risks of a trade war, while renewed maximum pressure on Iran, sanctions on Russia and the halt of Venezuelan crude oil purchases add to the complexity. At the same time, rising fiscal pressure pushes OPEC members to focus on maximizing revenue, according to ANZ. "OPEC's ability to phase out production cuts without disrupting the oil market is getting increasingly difficult," the analysts say. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

0417 ET - Gold futures slide but remain on-track for weekly gains on safe-haven demand. Futures are down 0.6% at $2,939.70 a troy ounce, but remain up 1.4% on week. The precious metal set a fresh record high of $2,973.40/oz in the prior session, and a test of $3,000/oz is starting to look like a question of "when" rather than "if," Pepperstone's Michael Brown says in a note. The $3,000 mark might give the bulls a point to reassess gold's momentum and perhaps take some profit, but upward momentum should continue with safe-haven demand continuing to linger, Brown writes. President Trump's tariff threats, lingering trade and economic uncertainty and persistent geopolitical tensions are supporting the flight to safe-haven assets like gold. (joseph.hoppe@wsj.com)

0407 ET - Crude futures edge lower in early trade but are still poised for weekly gains of more than 1.5% on rising supply concerns and a weaker U.S. dollar. Prices are supported by disruptions to Kazakhstan's oil flows after a Ukrainian drone attack on a major pipeline in Russia and prospects that OPEC+ could delay its output hike plans. The market is also keeping a close eye on developments in U.S.-Russia talks to end the war in Ukraine. Meanwhile, the latest data showed U.S. crude stockpiles rose more than expected last week, while gasoline inventories and distillate fuel stocks fell. According to analysts at Saxo, "the market continues to lack a clear direction, with supply disruptions in Kazakhstan and the OPEC+ production increase delay being offset by global demand worries." Brent crude is down 0.7% to $75.93 a barrel, while WTI falls 0.8% to $71.92 a barrel. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

0204 ET - Comex gold futures are likely extending consolidation, based on the daily chart, RHB Retail Research's Joseph Chai says in a research report. The relative strength index is now moving sideways, indicating that momentum remains neutral, the analyst notes. Hence, the commodity is likely trading sideways for consolidation. Gold is also maintaining a bullish technical setup, trading above 20- and 50-day simple moving averages, the analyst says. As long as the precious metal stays above support at the $2,800/oz level, RHB will retain a positive trading bias for the commodity. Spot gold is 0.3% lower at $2,929.74/oz. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)

2147 ET - Palm oil prices rise in Asian trading, tracking gains in soybean oil overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade. Palm oil's recent rally has pushed it to a premium over soybean oil, which could weigh on demand, AmInvestment Bank says in a note. That trend may persist amid expectations of a strong U.S. soy harvest, it adds. Technically, with crude palm oil futures continuing to signal bullish momentum, prices may test the MYR4,750-a-ton resistance level, with pullbacks offering buying opportunities, it says. AmInvestment Bank sees support for CPO prices at 4,613 ringgit a ton and resistance at 4,747 ringgit a ton. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for May delivery rises 62 ringgit to 4,704 ringgit a ton. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)

2145 ET - Iron-ore prices are higher in early Asian trade amid tight supply. The Australian cyclone likely affected 7 million tons of iron-ore shipment, weighing on its supply, Nanhua Futures says in a research note. On the demand front, market sentiment is improving on the prospect of better macroeconomic performance in China, it adds. Investors will pay attention to China's National People's Congress in early March for any further property supportive measures. The most-traded iron ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange is up 1.6% higher at 839.50 yuan a ton. (sherry.qin@wsj.com)

2133 ET - Aluminum edges higher in early Asian trade on reports that the European Union has backed a ban on Russian aluminum, say ANZ research analysts in a commentary. EU Ambassadors have agreed to move forward with a fresh package of sanctions against the key supplier, the analysts say noting media reports. These include a gradual ban on imports, restrictions on dozens of Russian vessels and prohibiting about a dozen banks from accessing the SWIFT international payment system, the analysts add. The three-month LME Aluminum contract is 0.1% higher at $2,729.50 a ton. (tracy.qu@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

February 21, 2025 09:15 ET (14:15 GMT)

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