• Revenue: $109.3 million for Q4 2024; $400 million projected for 2025.
• Net Loss: $29.8 million GAAP net loss for Q4 2024; $83.1 million GAAP net loss for full year 2024.
• Adjusted Net Income: $3.6 million for Q4 2024.
• Adjusted EBITDA: $24 million for Q4 2024; $77 million for full year 2024; $50 to $55 million projected for 2025.
• RNG Sales Volume: 62 million gallons in Q4 2024; 237 million gallons for full year 2024; 246 million gallons projected for 2025.
• Cash and Investments: $217 million in unrestricted cash and investments at end of 2024.
• Capital Expenditures: $57 million for 2024; $30 million projected for 2025.
• Long-term Debt: $303 million at end of 2024.
• RIN Prices: Estimated $2.40 for 2025, down from $3.10 in 2024.
• LCFS Prices: Estimated in the low $70s for 2025, up from $61 in 2024.

• Warning! GuruFocus has detected 2 Warning Sign with CLNE.

Release Date: February 24, 2025

For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.

Positive Points

• Clean Energy Fuels Corp (NASDAQ:CLNE) reported a 9% increase in renewable natural gas (RNG) sales for the fourth quarter of 2024, reaching 62 million gallons.
• The company generated $109 million in revenue for the fourth quarter and $77 million in adjusted EBITDA for the full year 2024.
• CLNE's downstream RNG fueling business performed well, bringing in almost $89 million of EBITDA in 2024.
• The company has a strong balance sheet with $217 million in unrestricted cash and investments, plus $100 million available to draw on its debt facility.
• CLNE is optimistic about the adoption of the Cummins X15 engine, which is expected to drive significant growth in the heavy-duty trucking sector.

Negative Points

• Clean Energy Fuels Corp (NASDAQ:CLNE) reported a GAAP net loss of $29.8 million for the fourth quarter of 2024.
• The company's 2025 outlook does not include the alternative fuel tax credit (AFTC), which contributed nearly $24 million to 2024 results.
• RIN prices are projected to be 30% lower in 2025 compared to 2024, impacting revenue.
• The company anticipates a decrease in adjusted EBITDA for 2025, with a guidance range of $50 to $55 million, down from $77 million in 2024.
• CLNE faces uncertainty regarding the finalization of the Section 45 clean fuel production credit, which could impact future revenue.

Q & A Highlights

Q: How are you looking at the clarifications under Section 45 and the OAL pause? A: Andrew Littlefair, CEO, explained that the OAL issue is technical and should be resolved soon, potentially bringing LCFS prices back to the 70s. Regarding Section 45, the current model limits credit value due to methane capture calculations. They believe the credit should be higher, reflecting the negative carbon intensity of their projects.

Q: Do you see any RNG volumes shifting from transportation to power generation for data centers? A: Andrew Littlefair, CEO, noted that while transportation remains the primary use for RNG, there is potential for data centers to use RNG due to its low carbon footprint. However, transportation is a hard-to-decarbonize sector, making RNG a valuable fuel choice there.

Q: Can you discuss volume growth in key sectors for Q4 and expectations for 2025? A: Robert Vreeland, CFO, stated that Q4 growth was driven by fleet and RNG transit customers. For 2025, they expect modest growth across sectors, with additional contributions from the X15 engine, although refuse sector growth may be muted due to market maturity.

Q: How do you see the 15L engine rollout impacting your existing station footprint? A: Andrew Littlefair, CEO, believes initial adoption will utilize the existing network, especially for smaller orders. As adoption grows, they anticipate building new stations for larger fleets like JB Hunt, but initial growth will leverage current infrastructure.

Q: How are you approaching project development beyond Moss given regulatory uncertainties? A: Andrew Littlefair, CEO, mentioned they are cautious about new greenfield projects due to regulatory uncertainties. They are focused on optimizing current projects and will consider new opportunities if they arise, but are not actively pursuing new developments.

Q: What are your thoughts on the timeline for fleet adoption of the 15L engine? A: Andrew Littlefair, CEO, expects fleets to start with smaller orders (50-100 units) before scaling up. This gradual adoption will allow time for infrastructure development and could lead to larger orders in the future as fleets gain confidence in the technology.

Q: Can you provide details on the unit economics for the X15 engine? A: Andrew Littlefair, CEO, explained that initial incremental pricing for the X15 engine was high, but they aim to reduce it to around $75,000. This pricing, combined with fuel savings, offers a two-year payback period, making it attractive for fleets.

Q: How are you handling the booking of the Section 45 credit? A: Robert Vreeland, CFO, stated they are waiting for more certainty and finalization of the credit before booking it. They are monitoring the situation closely and will adjust their approach as clarity improves.

For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.