MW Nvidia is biggest chip player. But it also leads by this metric - which may surprise you.
By Philip van Doorn
Nvidia brings an end to semiconductor companies' earnings season
The semiconductor industry has an extended earnings season because of the way Nvidia Corp.'s fiscal calendar is set up. The world's largest chip maker by revenue and by market capitalization reported results for the fourth quarter of its fiscal 2025 - which ended Jan. 26 - after the market close on Wednesday.
So this is a good point to look at consensus estimates among analysts polled by FactSet to see which industry players are expected to show the most rapid sales growth over the next two years.
Live, ongoing coverage: Nvidia's stock is up after earnings. Here's what Wall Street thinks.
To screen the semiconductor industry, we began with a group of 63 companies with shares or American depositary receipts $(ADR.AU)$ listed on U.S. exchanges. We started with the 30 companies in the PHLX Semiconductor Index SOX and added 33 more in the S&P Composite 1500 Index XX:SP1500 that are in the semiconductor industry, as determined by FactSet, or in the Semiconductors and Semiconductor Equipment Global Industry Classification Standard group. The S&P Composite 1500 is made up of the S&P 500 SPX, the S&P MidCap 400 MID and the S&P Small Cap 600 SML.
The PHLX Semiconductor Index is tracked by the iShares Semiconductor ETF SOXX, making for an easy way for investors to gain exposure to this industry group. SOXX and its underlying index are weighted by market capitalization, with some limitations applied when the index is rebalanced quarterly. There is an 8% maximum weighting for each of the top five holdings and a 4% maximum weighting for the others. ADRs representing non-U.S. companies in the index are capped at a combined 10%.
The exchange-traded fund's top holding as of Wednesday was Broadcom Inc. $(AVGO)$, which made up 10.4% of the portfolio. Nvidia $(NVDA)$ was next at 7.5%, followed by Qualcomm Inc. at 6.4%, Texas Instruments Inc. $(TXN)$ at 6.2% and Advanced Micro Devices Inc. $(AMD)$ making up 6.1% of the fund.
To begin the screen we trimmed the list to 58 companies covered by at least five analysts working for brokerage or research firms polled by FactSet.
Then we looked at the analysts' consensus estimates for revenue through calendar 2026. The estimates were adjusted by FactSet for any companies whose fiscal years don't match the calendar.
These 15 companies are expected to show the highest compound annual growth rates (CAGR) for revenue from calendar 2024 through calendar 2026:
Company Ticker Projected two-year revenue CAGR through calendar 2026 Est. 2024 sales ($mil) Est. 2025 sales ($mil) Est. 2026 sales ($mil) Nvidia Corp. NVDA 39.7% $124,164 $196,243 $242,278 Marvell Technology Inc. MRVL 30.4% $5,728 $8,005 $9,740 Silicon Laboratories Inc. SLAB 27.9% $584 $786 $955 SolarEdge Technologies Inc. SEDG 27.7% $911 $1,093 $1,486 Wolfspeed Inc. WOLF 26.1% $791 $893 $1,258 SiTime Corp. SITM 25.5% $203 $256 $319 First Solar Inc. FSLR 25.2% $4,206 $5,508 $6,595 Micron Technology Inc. MU 24.7% $28,476 $38,087 $44,282 Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. ADR TSM 23.2% $87,970 $112,265 $133,548 ARM Holdings PLC ADR ARM 22.8% $3,818 $4,700 $5,757 Advanced Micro Devices Inc. AMD 21.9% $25,785 $31,775 $38,285 MaxLinear Inc. MXL 21.5% $361 $445 $533 Monolithic Power Systems Inc. MPWR 17.3% $2,207 $2,608 $3,037 Broadcom Inc. AVGO 16.8% $53,265 $63,135 $72,661 Teradyne Inc. TER 16.4% $2,820 $3,223 $3,821 Source: FactSet
It is remarkable that the largest industry player by revenue and market capitalization is still expected to increase sales most rapidly over the next two years.
Here is a summary of analysts' opinions for this group. You might need to scroll the table to see all of the columns. Keep in mind that nearly all analysts set 12-month price targets. That might be considered a rather short period for a committed long-term investor.
Company Ticker Share "buy" ratings Share neutral ratings Share "sell" ratings Feb. 26 price Cons. price target Implied 12-month upside potential Nvidia Corp. NVDA 91% 9% 0% $131.28 $176.06 34% Marvell Technology Inc. MRVL 90% 10% 0% $94.90 $131.42 38% Silicon Laboratories Inc. SLAB 42% 41% 17% $142.69 $144.89 2% SolarEdge Technologies Inc. SEDG 9% 68% 23% $18.54 $17.42 -6% Wolfspeed Inc. WOLF 28% 50% 22% $6.14 $9.07 48% SiTime Corp. SITM 63% 12% 25% $167.97 $248.33 48% First Solar Inc. FSLR 92% 8% 0% $156.84 $257.76 64% Micron Technology Inc. MU 81% 16% 3% $97.71 $128.69 32% Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. ADR TSM 93% 7% 0% $194.62 $248.76 28% ARM Holdings PLC ADR ARM 56% 34% 10% $138.97 $167.73 21% Advanced Micro Devices Inc. AMD 70% 28% 2% $104.74 $148.78 42% MaxLinear Inc. MXL 42% 58% 0% $15.55 $22.45 44% Monolithic Power Systems Inc. MPWR 65% 35% 0% $671.58 $833.92 24% Broadcom Inc. AVGO 84% 16% 0% $212.94 $252.18 18% Teradyne Inc. TER 59% 23% 18% $114.81 $138.23 20% Source: FactSet
Click on the tickers for more about each company.
Read: Tomi Kilgore's guide to the wealth of information available on the MarketWatch quote page
MW Nvidia is biggest chip player. But it also leads by this metric - which may surprise you.
By Philip van Doorn
Nvidia brings an end to semiconductor companies' earnings season
The semiconductor industry has an extended earnings season because of the way Nvidia Corp.'s fiscal calendar is set up. The world's largest chip maker by revenue and by market capitalization reported results for the fourth quarter of its fiscal 2025 - which ended Jan. 26 - after the market close on Wednesday.
So this is a good point to look at consensus estimates among analysts polled by FactSet to see which industry players are expected to show the most rapid sales growth over the next two years.
Live, ongoing coverage: Nvidia's stock is up after earnings. Here's what Wall Street thinks.
To screen the semiconductor industry, we began with a group of 63 companies with shares or American depositary receipts (ADR) listed on U.S. exchanges. We started with the 30 companies in the PHLX Semiconductor Index SOX and added 33 more in the S&P Composite 1500 Index XX:SP1500 that are in the semiconductor industry, as determined by FactSet, or in the Semiconductors and Semiconductor Equipment Global Industry Classification Standard group. The S&P Composite 1500 is made up of the S&P 500 SPX, the S&P MidCap 400 MID and the S&P Small Cap 600 SML.
The PHLX Semiconductor Index is tracked by the iShares Semiconductor ETF SOXX, making for an easy way for investors to gain exposure to this industry group. SOXX and its underlying index are weighted by market capitalization, with some limitations applied when the index is rebalanced quarterly. There is an 8% maximum weighting for each of the top five holdings and a 4% maximum weighting for the others. ADRs representing non-U.S. companies in the index are capped at a combined 10%.
The exchange-traded fund's top holding as of Wednesday was Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), which made up 10.4% of the portfolio. Nvidia (NVDA) was next at 7.5%, followed by Qualcomm Inc. at 6.4%, Texas Instruments Inc. (TXN) at 6.2% and Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD) making up 6.1% of the fund.
To begin the screen we trimmed the list to 58 companies covered by at least five analysts working for brokerage or research firms polled by FactSet.
Then we looked at the analysts' consensus estimates for revenue through calendar 2026. The estimates were adjusted by FactSet for any companies whose fiscal years don't match the calendar.
These 15 companies are expected to show the highest compound annual growth rates (CAGR) for revenue from calendar 2024 through calendar 2026:
Company Ticker Projected two-year revenue CAGR through calendar 2026 Est. 2024 sales ($mil) Est. 2025 sales ($mil) Est. 2026 sales ($mil)
Nvidia Corp. NVDA 39.7% $124,164 $196,243 $242,278
Marvell Technology Inc. MRVL 30.4% $5,728 $8,005 $9,740
Silicon Laboratories Inc. SLAB 27.9% $584 $786 $955
SolarEdge Technologies Inc. SEDG 27.7% $911 $1,093 $1,486
Wolfspeed Inc. WOLF 26.1% $791 $893 $1,258
SiTime Corp. SITM 25.5% $203 $256 $319
First Solar Inc. FSLR 25.2% $4,206 $5,508 $6,595
Micron Technology Inc. MU 24.7% $28,476 $38,087 $44,282
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. ADR TSM 23.2% $87,970 $112,265 $133,548
ARM Holdings PLC ADR ARM 22.8% $3,818 $4,700 $5,757
Advanced Micro Devices Inc. AMD 21.9% $25,785 $31,775 $38,285
MaxLinear Inc. MXL 21.5% $361 $445 $533
Monolithic Power Systems Inc. MPWR 17.3% $2,207 $2,608 $3,037
Broadcom Inc. AVGO 16.8% $53,265 $63,135 $72,661
Teradyne Inc. TER 16.4% $2,820 $3,223 $3,821
Source: FactSet
It is remarkable that the largest industry player by revenue and market capitalization is still expected to increase sales most rapidly over the next two years.
Here is a summary of analysts' opinions for this group. You might need to scroll the table to see all of the columns. Keep in mind that nearly all analysts set 12-month price targets. That might be considered a rather short period for a committed long-term investor.
Company Ticker Share "buy" ratings Share neutral ratings Share "sell" ratings Feb. 26 price Cons. price target Implied 12-month upside potential
Nvidia Corp. NVDA 91% 9% 0% $131.28 $176.06 34%
Marvell Technology Inc. MRVL 90% 10% 0% $94.90 $131.42 38%
Silicon Laboratories Inc. SLAB 42% 41% 17% $142.69 $144.89 2%
SolarEdge Technologies Inc. SEDG 9% 68% 23% $18.54 $17.42 -6%
Wolfspeed Inc. WOLF 28% 50% 22% $6.14 $9.07 48%
SiTime Corp. SITM 63% 12% 25% $167.97 $248.33 48%
First Solar Inc. FSLR 92% 8% 0% $156.84 $257.76 64%
Micron Technology Inc. MU 81% 16% 3% $97.71 $128.69 32%
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. ADR TSM 93% 7% 0% $194.62 $248.76 28%
ARM Holdings PLC ADR ARM 56% 34% 10% $138.97 $167.73 21%
Advanced Micro Devices Inc. AMD 70% 28% 2% $104.74 $148.78 42%
MaxLinear Inc. MXL 42% 58% 0% $15.55 $22.45 44%
Monolithic Power Systems Inc. MPWR 65% 35% 0% $671.58 $833.92 24%
Broadcom Inc. AVGO 84% 16% 0% $212.94 $252.18 18%
Teradyne Inc. TER 59% 23% 18% $114.81 $138.23 20%
Source: FactSet
Click on the tickers for more about each company.
Read: Tomi Kilgore's guide to the wealth of information available on the MarketWatch quote page
(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires
February 27, 2025 09:48 ET (14:48 GMT)
MW Nvidia is biggest chip player. But it also -2-
Looking at the ratings columns, some of the stocks have a high percentage of "sell" or equivalent ratings among analysts. Before making any investment, you should do your own research to form your own opinion about how competitive a company might be over the next decade. That is the time horizon favored by Berkshire Hathaway Inc. $(BRK.B)$ Chief Executive Warren Buffett when making a new investment. You can read more about that type of long-term investment philosophy here.
Don't miss: This momentum-stock fund can lower your risk. It has outperformed the S&P 500.
-Philip van Doorn
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February 27, 2025 09:48 ET (14:48 GMT)
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