BUZZ-Chevron's potential exit from Venezuela will weigh on US Gulf Coast refiners, TD Cowen says

Reuters
02-27
BUZZ-Chevron's potential exit from Venezuela will weigh on US Gulf Coast refiners, TD Cowen says

** Ritterbusch analysts said crude markets may be acquiring support from U.S. President Donald Trump reversing a license given to CVX to operate in Venezuela

** Brent crude futures LCOc1 were up 1.6% at $73.69/bbl by 09:54 am E.T., while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures CLc1 rose 1.79% to $69.84 O/R

** Chevron said on Wednesday it was aware of Trump's post and was considering its implications

** Brokerage TD Cowen says Chevron's CVX.N exit could reduce Venezuela's production by 200,000 bpd, which could be refilled by OPEC+ increasing output

** Move could weigh on U.S. refiners as they would have higher procurement costs; if OPEC+ would not increase supply, it could increase prices for heavy sour crude - TD Cowen

** "...the most impacted refiners could be those with the highest exposure to coastal heavy and medium sour crude prices. PBF tops this list, while VLO and PSX also have elevated exposure here" - TD Cowen

** PBF Energy PBF.N, Phillips 66 PSX.N and Valero VLO.N did not immediately respond to requests for comment

** TD Cowen says CVX previously suggested it generated <2% of its 2023 CFO from Venezuela, which would imply $600 mln generated in 2024, JVs it is involved in producing 200,000 bpd

** Venezuela's crude exports to U.S. peaked at 310,000 bpd in December 2024 - 90% went to US Gulf Coast, 10% to US East Coast - brokerage

(Reporting by Seher Dareen in Bengaluru)

((Seher.Dareen@thomsonreuters.com))

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