It's been a good week for The Boston Beer Company, Inc. (NYSE:SAM) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest full-year results, and the shares gained 8.4% to US$244. Statutory earnings per share fell badly short of expectations, coming in at US$5.06, some 38% below analyst forecasts, although revenues were okay, approximately in line with analyst estimates at US$2.0b. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

See our latest analysis for Boston Beer Company

Following last week's earnings report, Boston Beer Company's twelve analysts are forecasting 2025 revenues to be US$2.05b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to surge 98% to US$10.65. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$2.04b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$11.67 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the minor downgrade to their earnings per share numbers for next year.

The average price target fell 5.1% to US$279, with reduced earnings forecasts clearly tied to a lower valuation estimate. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Boston Beer Company at US$349 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$214. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Boston Beer Company's past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Boston Beer Company's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 1.8% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 6.3% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 4.2% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Boston Beer Company.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Boston Beer Company. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Boston Beer Company's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Boston Beer Company's future valuation.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Boston Beer Company going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Boston Beer Company you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.