Release Date: February 27, 2025

For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.

Positive Points

• AMG Critical Materials NV (AMVMF) reported a strong EBITDA of $168 million for the full year 2024, despite low lithium and vanadium prices.
• AMG Technologies delivered an exceptional performance with an adjusted full-year EBITDA of $68 million, more than double that of 2023.
• The company secured a record-breaking $380 million in orders for AMG Engineering in 2024, with an order backlog of $374 million.
• The new vanadium plant in Zanesville, Ohio, and the expansion of the lithium operation in Brazil have been successfully completed, enhancing production capabilities.
• AMG Critical Materials NV (AMVMF) increased its adjusted EBITDA outlook for 2025 from $130 million to $150 million or more, indicating confidence in future performance.

Negative Points

• Lithium and vanadium prices dropped significantly, with lithium prices down 65% and vanadium prices down 23%, impacting revenue.
• Q4 2024 revenues for AMG Lithium decreased by 35% compared to the prior year, primarily due to a 44% decline in lithium market prices.
• Adjusted lithium EBITDA for Q4 2024 was $6 million, down 79% from Q4 2023, reflecting the impact of declining lithium prices.
• AMG Vanadium's revenue for the quarter decreased by 10% compared to Q4 2023, mainly due to lower volumes of ferro vanadium.
• The increase in electricity prices forced AMG Silicon to cease operations in the first quarter of 2025, indicating potential operational challenges.

Q & A Highlights

• Warning! GuruFocus has detected 5 Warning Signs with AMVMF.

Q: Can you quantify the absolute amount of the 45X credit on vanadium's EBITDA in Q4, and specify whether there is a retroactive element in this amount? A: The IRS decided to include raw materials in the calculation of total costs, which is 10% of total costs. We are guiding to assume that $20 million of lower costs is going forward in our numbers. Jackson Dunkel, CFO

Q: Is the increased benefit from the IRS ruling driving part of the guidance uplift from $130 million to $150 million for 2025? A: That was already taken into account in November. We weren't certain of the total quantum, but we knew it would be approximately $20 million. Jackson Dunkel, CFO

Q: Can you clarify your market position in the US market for vanadium? Are you the sole US-based domestic producer? A: Yes, we are the sole producer of ferrovanadium in the United States, which is a net importer. This gives us a very interesting competitive position, and if tariffs occur, they will benefit us. Dr. Heinz Schimmelbusch, CEO

Q: Can you provide an update on the commissioning process and qualification process for the Bitterfeld lithium project? A: The qualification process is a traditional, very disciplined sequence, and we are in that sequence with no indication that we will not reach our target. The commissioning is a step process, and everything is on plan. Dr. Heinz Schimmelbusch, CEO

Q: What is your message to reassure investors on the profitability of Bitterfeld in the current low price environment? A: The profitability of a refinery depends on the spread between input and output materials. We are benefiting from low-cost distressed feed from other refineries, which might benefit us. Dr. Heinz Schimmelbusch, CEO

Q: What price assumption has changed versus November that impacted the 2025 guidance, particularly for antimony? A: Antimony is becoming more of a core business, and we are in favor of this market. The guidance upgrade is due to broad performance improvements across various sectors, not just antimony. Dr. Heinz Schimmelbusch, CEO

Q: How much contribution from Bitterfeld is included in your outlook? A: Bitterfeld is not expected to contribute significantly in the near term. Dr. Heinz Schimmelbusch, CEO

Q: Can you elaborate on the sustainability of the Chrome business? A: Chrome is a very steady and profitable business, tied to the aerospace market. We are planning to implement production in the United States, which would be the first such production there. Dr. Heinz Schimmelbusch, CEO

For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.