U.S. equity index futures mixed: S&P 500 up ~0.3%
Initial jobless claims 242k vs 221k estimate
Q4 GDP 2nd estimate 2.3% vs 2.3% estimate
Euro STOXX 600 index ~flat
Dollar up; bitcoin, crude both gain >1.5%; gold down ~1%
U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield rises to ~4.29%
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NASDAQ COMPOSITE INTERNAL MEASURE NEARS IMPORTANT JUNCTURE
The Nasdaq composite .IXIC managed to end a four-day losing streak on Wednesday. And now, in the wake of Nvidia's NVDA.O highly anticipated quarterly report, the composite appears poised for further strength at the open given that e-mini Nasdaq 100 futures NQcv1 are popping more than 100 points, or around 0.6%, in premarket trade.
That said, a check of one measure of the composite's internal strength shows that it remains challenged:
On December 6, the Nasdaq New High/New Low (NH/NL) index rose to 73.5%. However, it then, once again, stalled at the resistance line from its early 2023 high, before then diverging into the composite's December-16 record highs.
After falling to as low as 34.9% on December 26, the measure has been flailing around in a range. It rose to 55.1% on January 31, but ended Wednesday at 43.4%. Meanwhile, the IXIC has sold off as much as 5.7% from its record closing high.
The NH/NL index is now just above its mid-January troughs, which were at 41.1%, and the support line from its November 2023 low, which is now at 39.4%.
Thus, if this support line is to continue to hold, the NH/NL index would appear close to renewed strength. If it were to exceed 55.1%, it would potentially refocus it on the resistance line from its early 2023 high, which is now just over 72%.
A breakout above this barrier would suggest potential for much broader Nasdaq strength (the measure peaked at 96.4% in early 2021 followed by a protracted period of dissipating energy into the composite's November 2021 peak).
Conversely, a breakdown below the support line can coincide with greater Nasdaq instability, potentially leading to a washout low.
Additional 2024 troughs were at 27.1% and 17.7%.
The NH/NL index was at a sub-10% level when the Nasdaq ended its July-October 2023 10%+ correction.
(Terence Gabriel)
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FOR THURSDAY'S EARLIER LIVE MARKETS POSTS:
FIDELITY SAYS THIS CHINA RALLY IS DIFFERENT - CLICK HERE
NEUTRAL RATE: TIME TO LET GO - CLICK HERE
STOCKS TAKE A BREATHER IN A BUSY SESSION - CLICK HERE
EUROPE BEFORE THE BELL: WE'D FORGOTTEN STOCKS CAN GO DOWN - CLICK HERE
MORNING BID TRUMP TARIFFS TAKE SPOTLIGHT AS NVIDIA NEITHER HOT NOR COLD - CLICK HERE
NasdaqNHNLIndex02272025 https://tmsnrt.rs/3Xj3JMy
(Terence Gabriel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)
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