Alamos Gold Inc.'s (TSE:AGI) healthy profit numbers didn't contain any surprises for investors. However the statutory profit number doesn't tell the whole story, and we have found some factors which might be of concern to shareholders.
See our latest analysis for Alamos Gold
One essential aspect of assessing earnings quality is to look at how much a company is diluting shareholders. Alamos Gold expanded the number of shares on issue by 6.0% over the last year. Therefore, each share now receives a smaller portion of profit. To talk about net income, without noticing earnings per share, is to be distracted by the big numbers while ignoring the smaller numbers that talk to per share value. You can see a chart of Alamos Gold's EPS by clicking here.
Alamos Gold was losing money three years ago. On the bright side, in the last twelve months it grew profit by 35%. But EPS was less impressive, up only 31% in that time. And so, you can see quite clearly that dilution is influencing shareholder earnings.
Changes in the share price do tend to reflect changes in earnings per share, in the long run. So it will certainly be a positive for shareholders if Alamos Gold can grow EPS persistently. But on the other hand, we'd be far less excited to learn profit (but not EPS) was improving. For that reason, you could say that EPS is more important that net income in the long run, assuming the goal is to assess whether a company's share price might grow.
That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.
Each Alamos Gold share now gets a meaningfully smaller slice of its overall profit, due to dilution of existing shareholders. Because of this, we think that it may be that Alamos Gold's statutory profits are better than its underlying earnings power. But at least holders can take some solace from the 31% EPS growth in the last year. The goal of this article has been to assess how well we can rely on the statutory earnings to reflect the company's potential, but there is plenty more to consider. Obviously, we love to consider the historical data to inform our opinion of a company. But it can be really valuable to consider what other analysts are forecasting. Luckily, you can check out what analysts are forecasting by clicking here.
This note has only looked at a single factor that sheds light on the nature of Alamos Gold's profit. But there is always more to discover if you are capable of focussing your mind on minutiae. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks with significant insider holdings to be useful.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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