For beginners, it can seem like a good idea (and an exciting prospect) to buy a company that tells a good story to investors, even if it currently lacks a track record of revenue and profit. But as Peter Lynch said in One Up On Wall Street, 'Long shots almost never pay off.' While a well funded company may sustain losses for years, it will need to generate a profit eventually, or else investors will move on and the company will wither away.
In contrast to all that, many investors prefer to focus on companies like Eli Lilly (NYSE:LLY), which has not only revenues, but also profits. While this doesn't necessarily speak to whether it's undervalued, the profitability of the business is enough to warrant some appreciation - especially if its growing.
See our latest analysis for Eli Lilly
If you believe that markets are even vaguely efficient, then over the long term you'd expect a company's share price to follow its earnings per share (EPS) outcomes. So it makes sense that experienced investors pay close attention to company EPS when undertaking investment research. Impressively, Eli Lilly has grown EPS by 24% per year, compound, in the last three years. As a result, we can understand why the stock trades on a high multiple of trailing twelve month earnings.
It's often helpful to take a look at earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) margins, as well as revenue growth, to get another take on the quality of the company's growth. Eli Lilly shareholders can take confidence from the fact that EBIT margins are up from 32% to 39%, and revenue is growing. That's great to see, on both counts.
In the chart below, you can see how the company has grown earnings and revenue, over time. Click on the chart to see the exact numbers.
The trick, as an investor, is to find companies that are going to perform well in the future, not just in the past. While crystal balls don't exist, you can check our visualization of consensus analyst forecasts for Eli Lilly's future EPS 100% free.
Since Eli Lilly has a market capitalisation of US$792b, we wouldn't expect insiders to hold a large percentage of shares. But thanks to their investment in the company, it's pleasing to see that there are still incentives to align their actions with the shareholders. Notably, they have an enviable stake in the company, worth US$1.1b. This comes in at 0.1% of shares in the company, which is a fair amount of a business of this size. This should still be a great incentive for management to maximise shareholder value.
For growth investors, Eli Lilly's raw rate of earnings growth is a beacon in the night. This EPS growth rate is something the company should be proud of, and so it's no surprise that insiders are holding on to a considerable chunk of shares. On the balance of its merits, solid EPS growth and company insiders who are aligned with the shareholders would indicate a business that is worthy of further research. Still, you should learn about the 2 warning signs we've spotted with Eli Lilly (including 1 which shouldn't be ignored).
Although Eli Lilly certainly looks good, it may appeal to more investors if insiders were buying up shares. If you like to see companies with more skin in the game, then check out this handpicked selection of companies that not only boast of strong growth but have strong insider backing.
Please note the insider transactions discussed in this article refer to reportable transactions in the relevant jurisdiction.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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