Last week, you might have seen that Mirum Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:MIRM) released its yearly result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 9.3% to US$47.57 in the past week. It was a pretty bad result overall; while revenues were in line with expectations at US$337m, statutory losses exploded to US$1.85 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Mirum Pharmaceuticals after the latest results.

Check out our latest analysis for Mirum Pharmaceuticals

After the latest results, the eight analysts covering Mirum Pharmaceuticals are now predicting revenues of US$427.1m in 2025. If met, this would reflect a substantial 27% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 27% to US$1.31. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$425.4m and losses of US$0.60 per share in 2025. While this year's revenue estimates held steady, there was also a considerable increase to loss per share expectations, suggesting the consensus has a bit of a mixed view on the stock.

The consensus price target held steady at US$64.40, seemingly implying that the higher forecast losses are not expected to have a long term impact on the company's valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on Mirum Pharmaceuticals, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$74.00 and the most bearish at US$54.00 per share. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Mirum Pharmaceuticals' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 27% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 71% p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 20% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while Mirum Pharmaceuticals' revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Mirum Pharmaceuticals going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 1 warning sign for Mirum Pharmaceuticals that you need to be mindful of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.