AerCap Holdings N.V. (NYSE:AER) came out with its yearly results last week, and we wanted to see how the business is performing and what industry forecasters think of the company following this report. Revenues were US$8.0b, approximately in line with whatthe analysts expected, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) crushed expectations, coming in at US$10.79, an impressive 28% ahead of estimates. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for AerCap Holdings

Following last week's earnings report, AerCap Holdings' eight analysts are forecasting 2025 revenues to be US$8.05b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to dip 6.7% to US$10.77 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$8.10b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$8.96 in 2025. Although the revenue estimates have not really changed, we can see there's been a sizeable expansion in earnings per share expectations, suggesting that the analysts have become more bullish after the latest result.

The analysts have been lifting their price targets on the back of the earnings upgrade, with the consensus price target rising 5.3% to US$119. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on AerCap Holdings, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$130 and the most bearish at US$105 per share. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that AerCap Holdings is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that AerCap Holdings' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 0.6% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 14% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 5.4% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that AerCap Holdings is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around AerCap Holdings' earnings potential next year. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple AerCap Holdings analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 3 warning signs with AerCap Holdings (at least 2 which are potentially serious) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.