Ciena Corporation CIEN is scheduled to report first-quarter fiscal 2025 results on March 11, before market open.

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The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pegged at 39 cents per share, implying a 40.9% decrease from the year-ago level.

The consensus estimate for revenues is pegged at $1.05 billion, indicating a growth of 0.7% from the prior-year level. For the fiscal first quarter, management expects revenues in the range of $1.01- $1.09 billion.

Ciena’s earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the last four quarters while lagging in one. It delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 34.2%, on average. Shares of the company have soared 26.1% in the past year compared with the Zacks Fiber Optics industry's growth of 38.2%.

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Factors Shaping CIEN’s Q1 Results

Rising network traffic, growing bandwidth demands (especially driven by the proliferation of AI applications) and the shift toward cloud architectures are likely to be major driving forces for Ciena in the fiscal first quarter. The company aims to enhance its profitability by maintaining a balanced portfolio of both new and existing customers.

Expanding momentum with cloud providers augurs well. Cloud providers are expected to invest heavily in capital expenditures to enhance artificial intelligence (AI) networks as demand grows, while service provider order patterns are likely to improve, with inventory levels returning to normal and aligning with actual consumption. The increasing uptake of the Blue Planet software is another positive. We expect revenues from Blue Planet Automation Software and Services to be $16.7 million in the fiscal first quarter, up 19.9% year over year. 

Solid strength in its WaveLogic 5 and WaveLogic 6 (WLe6) solutions, with widespread adoptions, is likely to have driven CIEN’s top line in the to-be-reported quarter. The WLe6 has now become generally available, solidifying Ciena’s position as the only provider of 1.6 terabit capable coherent modems in the market, further enhancing its technological leadership.

Ciena Corporation Price and EPS Surprise

Ciena Corporation price-eps-surprise | Ciena Corporation Quote

However, the downtrend across Europe, the Middle East and Africa is likely to have weighed on Ciena’s top-line performance. Customer concentration risk and cut-throat competition with other players for the sale of communications networking equipment, software and services are likely to challenge CIEN’s performance in the fiscal first quarter.

For the fiscal first quarter, we expect revenues from Networking Platforms to be $785.9 million, down 2.6% year over year. Revenues from Global Services and Platform Software and Services are pegged at $132.5 million and $108 million, up 4.5% and 20.3% year over year.

Recent Highlights

In February 2025, Ciena’s WLe6 was adopted by e& UAE, the flagship telecom arm of e& in the UAE and Cirion Technologies, respectively. Also, Ciena’s coherent optical innovations were deployed by Lumen Technologies to augment Lumen’s ability to deliver customized, scalable connectivity services to key cloud and data center providers, enabling them to meet the evolving demands of AI workloads and the growing volume of associated traffic.

In January 2025, WLe6 was deployed by Southern Cross Cable Limited to achieve a milestone of connecting the world's first transpacific 1 Tb/s single-carrier wavelength across its 13,500-kilometer live production network. The WL6e technology delivered seamless performance at 1 Tb/s over the longest single optical submarine cable segment globally.  

In November 2024, WLe6 was implemented by EuNetworks, a leading provider of critical bandwidth infrastructure, as Europe’s first 1.6 Tb/s coherent solution.

What Our Model Predicts for CIEN

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for CIEN in this earnings season. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. This is not the case here.

CIEN has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Stocks With Favorable Combination

Here are a few stocks that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this season.

DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc. DKS is set to release quarterly numbers on March 11. It currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.11% and a Zacks Rank #2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for DKS’ to-be-reported quarter’s EPS and revenues is pegged at $3.47 and $3.75 billion, respectively. Shares of DKS have gained 18.5% in the past year.

American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. AEO presently has an Earnings ESP of +2.29% and a Zacks Rank #3. AEO is scheduled to report quarterly numbers on March 12. 

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AEO’s to-be-reported quarter’s bottom line is pegged at 50 cents. The same for revenues is pegged at $1.61 billion. Shares of AEO have lost 44.8% in the past year.

Gaia GAIA has an Earnings ESP of +25.00% and a Zacks Rank #2. Gaia is scheduled to release earnings on March 10.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for GAIA’s to-be-reported quarter’s bottom line is pegged at a loss of 4 cents. The same for revenues is pegged at $24.4 million. Shares of GAIA have gained 40.1% in the past year.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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