Target (NYSE:TGT) just delivered solid fourth-quarter earnings, but investors aren't convinced, dragging share price down by nearly 6% at 10.44am today. Despite posting a stronger-than-expected $2.41 per share in adjusted earningsbeating estimates of $2.26the big-box retailer is signaling trouble ahead. February sales dipped slightly, hit by unseasonably cold weather and softer consumer confidence, and the company is bracing for meaningful profit pressure in Q1. Target now expects just around 1% net sales growth for the full year, far below the 2.5% analysts had hoped for.

• Warning! GuruFocus has detected 5 Warning Signs with TGT.

The real issue? Foot traffic. Data from Placer.ai shows a 6.8% year-over-year decline in February, worse than rivals like Walmart (NYSE:WMT) and Costco (NASDAQ:COST). Analysts remain splitJefferies' Corey Tarlowe still sees upside thanks to margin expansion and improving digital sales, while others are wary of ongoing market share shifts. Target is leaning into affordability and exclusive collaborations, like recent deals with Champion and Warby Parker, to keep customers engaged. But discretionary spending remains choppy, making it tough to predict whether the company's turnaround efforts will stick.

Bigger picture, the macro backdrop isn't helping. U.S. consumer sentiment is at a 15-month low, and the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model is flashing a -2.8% contraction for Q1 GDP. That means Target's caution isn't just about its own businessit's part of a broader retail slowdown. Investors will be watching the company's upcoming investor day for signals on whether this is just a speed bump or the start of a longer rough patch.