MW Trump's tariffs worry companies. Here's what they're saying about the uncertainty.

By Tomi Kilgore and Weston Blasi

Companies are assuming tariffs will be a 'disturbance' to earnings, but they don't know how much

If there's one thing consumer-facing companies know about the tariffs President Donald Trump has implemented, it's that they will hurt earnings. But from what they've been saying, they really have no idea by how much.

One of the prevailing themes of the latest earnings-reporting season is that fourth-quarter results were pretty strong, with per-share profits for S&P 500 companies seeing the fastest growth - more than 18% from a year ago - in three years, according to FactSet data.

At the same time, many companies have provided earnings and sales projections for the coming year that were below what Wall Street was expecting.

And while they said the guidance includes the belief that consumers will remain pressured by an uncertain economic and policy environment, such as tariffs, most said they couldn't estimate what the exact impact would be.

Trump said himself that the tariffs will cause "a little disturbance," but all he said about the potential impact was that "it won't be much."

It's no wonder that companies are unsure. After Trump first announced tariffs on Mexico and Canada, he then said just days later that they would be delayed 30 days. And just a day after the tariffs kicked in on Tuesday, including doubled tariffs on imports from China, there were reports that a compromise could be in the works.

Adding to the uncertainty, the Trump administration said Wednesday that automobile imports from Mexico and Canada would receive a one-month exemption from tariffs.

It's not just companies that are expecting some earnings pain. Wall Street analysts have been cutting earnings estimates for S&P 500 companies for both the first quarter and full year, as they usually do, but by more than the five-year and 10-year averages due to concerns about tariffs and subsequent inflation, said John Butters, senior earnings analyst at FactSet.

So amid all this uncertainty, here's what some high-profile companies, from various industries, have said about tariffs:

Target sees price hikes coming in days, but won't say how much

Target Corp. $(TGT)$ Chief Executive Brian Cornell said on CNBC on Tuesday that given the retailer's reliance on Mexico for fresh fruits and vegetables during the winter months, "the consumer will likely see price increases over the next couple days." But he didn't say by how much.

The company beat fiscal fourth-quarter earnings forecasts, but also provided a full-year 2025 sales outlook that was below expectations, with particular pressure expected in the first quarter, due in part to "tariff uncertainty."

Chief Commercial Officer Gomez acknowledged that the tariff situation was "fluid." Therefore, rather than make an early decision on how to deal with and quantify them, he said, according to an AlphaSense transcript, "we just need to make sure that we have options and that we're being flexible."

Target's stock has dropped 13.8% in 2025, while the S&P 500 index SPX has eased 0.7%.

Walmart's downbeat guidance didn't include anything explicit about tariffs

Walmart Inc. $(WMT)$ did what Target did, beating quarterly earnings expectations but providing a downbeat outlook.

Chief Financial Officer John David Rainey said the guidance acknowledged that "we are in an uncertain time," and he didn't want to "get out over our skis" and try to predict anything. As a result, "we don't have any explicit assumption in our guidance around tariffs."

Chief Executive Doug McMillon said tariffs are something the company has managed for many years, and will continue to do so. "We can't predict what will happen in the future, but we can manage it really well," McMillon said, according to an AlphaSense transcript.

Walmart's stock has gained 6.2% this year, compared with a 1.1% rise by the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA.

Tesla believes tariffs will impact profitability

Despite Tesla Inc.'s $(TSLA)$ Chief Executive Elon Musk having a close relationship with Trump, the world's largest EV maker is bracing for tariff impacts.

"There's a lot of uncertainty around tariffs," Tesla CFO Vaibhav Taneja said during Tesla's latest earnings call in January. "Over the years, we've tried to localize our supply chain in every market, but we are still very reliant on parts from across the world for all our businesses.

"Therefore, the imposition of tariffs, which is very likely ... will have an impact on our business and profitability," he added.

Canada's outgoing Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced a 25% reciprocal tariff on American products, which would include Tesla and other U.S. vehicles. The threat of tariffs comes as Tesla's sales in Europe, particularly in Germany, have declined.

Analysts are not uniform on their prognoses for Tesla in the near term. Zack's Research Analysts lifted their Q4 2026 earnings estimate on Monday, and Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jones maintained a $430 price target. Bank of America lowered its price target from $490 to $380 on Tuesday.

Shares of Tesla have tumbled 30.9% year to date through Wednesday, but are up 54.4% over the past 12 months.

General Motors says it can manage in the short term, but won't include tariffs as part of guidance

Detroit-based American multinational automotive brand General Motors $(GM)$ could see impacts of North American tariffs.

"With respect to possible tariffs, we are working across our supply-chain logistics network and assembly plants so that we are prepared to mitigate near-term impacts," Mary Barra, chief executive of GM, said on the company's latest earnings call in January. Barra noted that the company's recent guidance "does not account" for tariffs.

She also said that the company has internally discussed "several levers" it can pull to reduce the impact of tariffs, but did not reveal specifics. GM builds vehicles in Mexico, Canada and in the United States.

See: How Trump tariffs are moving markets, and what investors should know

"You just can't relocate automotive production and the supply chain overnight. That's the challenge and the dilemma: Auto tariffs in North America could end up increasing costs on consumers before jobs come back to the country," Matt Blunt, president of the American Automotive Policy Council, which represents Ford Motor Co., GM and Stellantis.

Trump's one-month tariff exemption announcement Wednesday came after a conversation with the leaders of the "Big Three" automakers, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said.

GM's stock is down 9% year to date, but is up 19.3% over the past 12 months.

Ford says tariffs will lead to higher prices for consumers

"From an operational standpoint, we believe a few weeks of tariffs are manageable given the rate and flow of our products," Ford $(F)$ CEO Jim Farley said on the company's latest earnings call in February.

"There's no question that tariffs at 25% level from Canada and Mexico, if they're protracted, would have a huge impact on our industry, with billions of dollars of industry profits wiped out and adverse effect on U.S. jobs, as well as the entire value system in our industry," Farley said. "Tariffs would also mean higher prices for customers."

"President Trump has talked a lot about making our U.S. auto industry stronger, bringing more production here, more innovation in the U.S., and if his administration can achieve that, it would be one of...the most signature accomplishments," Farley said at a February auto conference. "So far what we're seeing is a lot of cost, and a lot of chaos."

See: Trump's trade war will hit hardest at home. This is the biggest casualty.

Tariffs could wipe out all profits for Detroit's Big Three if they don't raise prices, Barclays estimates.

"While it's generally understood that a blanket 25% tariff on any vehicles or content from Mexico or Canada could be disruptive, it may be underappreciated how disruptive this could be," Barclays analyst Dan Levy wrote in a note this week. Levy added these tariffs have a chance to "wipe out" all profits for some automakers.

Shares of Ford Inc. have slipped 2.5% so far this year, and have shed 23% over the last 12 months.

Best Buy sees tariffs leading to price increases for American consumers

Another retailer, Best Buy Co. Inc. $(BBY)$, beat fourth-quarter earnings expectations but said it sees first-quarter sales declining, while Wall Street was projecting growth.

Chief Executive Corie Barry said because the tariff situation is "highly dynamic," with uncertainty over the duration, amount and countries involved, the outlook provided "does not include the impact of the recently enacted tariffs."

But what she did say was that tariffs at recently enacted levels "will result in price increases" for the American consumer, but given the uncertain backdrop, she can't say "precisely" what those increases will be.

Campbell's lowered guidance doesn't reflect 'evolving' tariff environment

Soup and snacks company Campbell's Co. $(CPB)$ said it faces tariffs in both Mexico and Canada, and is also subject to steel and aluminum tariffs given that metal cans make up a lot of its packaging.

Chief Executive Mick Beekhuizen added that Campbell's was also subject to retaliatory tariffs, as the company produces soups in the U.S. that are shipped to Canada.

He added that while the company has been working with its suppliers to soften any potential impact, depending on how long the tariffs are in place, other actions the company may need to take include price increases.

Like so many others, Campbell's reported quarterly earnings per share that topped Wall Street's forecasts, but lowered its full-year outlook.

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March 05, 2025 17:50 ET (22:50 GMT)

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