Investing.com -- Intuitive Machines shares plunged more than 35% premarket on Friday, extending Thursday’s 20% decline, after its Athena Nova-C lander experienced an "off-nominal" landing at the Lunar South Pole.
Analysts at Canaccord noted that while the lander appears to have reached the surface, "the orientation of the spacecraft is currently unclear," and it is "more likely than not" that it landed on its side.
Similar to the previous IM-1 mission, the lander’s solar panels are receiving less sunlight than expected, which could impact its ability to meet mission objectives.
However, unlike the prior mission, communications with Athena have been immediately established, with all four radios functioning properly.
"Mission control was able to receive a signal from the lander and send it commands (and get a response) immediately," Canaccord wrote.
Despite negative headlines, Canaccord explains that the mission’s ultimate success will depend on the functionality of its instruments and payloads.
"LUNR has already been paid ~90% of the IM-2 mission’s potential ~$120M contract value," the analysts noted, with $12 million in milestone payments still at stake.
If Intuitive Machines can successfully operate NASA’s PRIME-1/TRIDENT ice prospecting drill and deploy customer payloads such as the MAPP and Yaoki lunar rovers, it could salvage the mission’s objectives, notes the firm.
Canaccord acknowledged that Intuitive Machines will need to demonstrate a vertical touchdown for its IM-3 mission in early 2026 but pointed out that it has two more missions under contract with NASA.
While lowering its price target to $22, the firm maintained a Buy rating, stating, "We do think that the selloff in the stock today is overdone, particularly if most of the customer payloads on the mission are able to collect the data being sought."
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