(Bloomberg) -- Investor sentiment is so poor that even a slightly better-than-expected US jobs report is set to spark a rally in the S&P 500, according to a Goldman Sachs Group Inc. trading desk.

The team projects gains of as much as 2% in the benchmark if monthly payrolls were to rise more than 150,000 for February. The bank estimates an increase of 170,000, while last economists polled by Bloomberg forecast a median increase of 160,000.

There’s a “clear case” for upside given sentiment is low, the volatility market is displaying signs of stress, a short base has been built and stocks are beginning to screen as oversold, they wrote in a note.

The S&P 500 has dropped this year as doubts around the artificial intelligence trade have pummeled technology stocks. Investors have also swapped expensive US equities for cheaper international peers as President Donald Trump’s shifting stance on tariffs has sowed confusion.

The benchmark has fallen 6.6% since hitting a record high on Feb. 19, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 has plunged nearly 10%.

Still, the Goldman team warned stocks face bigger declines if the jobs data — due at 8:30 a.m. in Washington DC — reinforced concerns around slowing economic growth. Any figure lower than 150,000 would send the S&P 500 tumbling as much as 2.5%, they wrote.

Nonfarm payrolls are “now being viewed as a binary event for risk assets,” the team said. “Good data is good and bad data is bad, especially with the equity market on shaky ground.”

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