It's been a sad week for FTAI Aviation Ltd. (NASDAQ:FTAI), who've watched their investment drop 19% to US$113 in the week since the company reported its yearly result. Revenue hit US$1.7b in line with forecasts, although the company reported a statutory loss per share of US$0.32 that was somewhat smaller than the analysts expected. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

See our latest analysis for FTAI Aviation

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from FTAI Aviation's eleven analysts is for revenues of US$2.37b in 2025. This reflects a sizeable 37% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Earnings are expected to improve, with FTAI Aviation forecast to report a statutory profit of US$4.84 per share. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$2.34b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$5.61 in 2025. So there's definitely been a decline in sentiment after the latest results, noting the real cut to new EPS forecasts.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at US$188, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on FTAI Aviation, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$300 and the most bearish at US$123 per share. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of FTAI Aviation'shistorical trends, as the 37% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 is roughly in line with the 33% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 5.4% annually. So it's pretty clear that FTAI Aviation is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for FTAI Aviation. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$188, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple FTAI Aviation analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 1 warning sign for FTAI Aviation you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.