Vail Resorts, Inc. MTN is scheduled to report second-quarter fiscal 2025 results on March 10.

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In the last reported quarter, MTN registered an earnings surprise of 10.3%.

Trend in Estimate Revision of MTN

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal second-quarter earnings per share (EPS) is pegged at $6.29, indicating an improvement of 9.2% from $5.76 reported in the year-ago quarter.

Vail Resorts, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Vail Resorts, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Vail Resorts, Inc. Quote

For revenues, the consensus mark is pegged at $1.14 billion. The projection suggests a 5.6% rise from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.

Let's take a look at how things have shaped up in the quarter.

Factors Likely to Shape MTN’s Quarterly Results

Vail Resorts' fiscal second-quarter performance is likely to have gained from strong season pass sales and favorable early-season conditions at key North American resorts. Growth in lift ticket revenues and ancillary businesses such as ski school and dining are likely to have contributed to its fiscal second-quarter top-line improvement. Additionally, strategic capital investments in base area enhancements, lift upgrades, beginner ski and ride school improvements, dining experiences, and real estate development are expected to have aided the company’s performance in the fiscal second quarter.

Vail Resorts' season-to-date performance through Jan. 5, 2025, reflects strengths and challenges in the North American ski market. While total skier visits declined by 0.3% year over year, lift ticket revenues rose 4.5%, benefiting from improved weather conditions and the stability of the season pass program. Ancillary businesses showed mixed results, with ski school and dining revenues increasing by 1.1% and 6.6%, respectively, while retail and rental revenues declined by 5.4%. Vail Resorts' season-to-date results indicate the stability provided by its season pass program and investments in the guest experience. The company's mountain operations teams executed effectively across all resorts, leading to improved local visitation compared with the prior year.

Our model predicts fiscal second-quarter revenues from lift tickets, Ski School and Dining to rise 4.4%, 1.6% and 32.1% year over year to $630 million, $128.7 million and $108.4 million, respectively. We expect fiscal second quarter revenues from retail and rental to fall 4.2% year over year to $130.5 million.

Lodging performance is likely to have been mixed during the fiscal second quarter. While U.S. resort bookings remained steady compared to the prior year, Whistler Blackcomb may have experienced weaker demand due to delayed booking decisions following challenges in the previous season. Our model predicts total lodging revenues in the fiscal second quarter to rise 13.7% year over year to $88.5 million.

The company's ongoing resource efficiency transformation plan, aimed at achieving $100 million in annualized cost savings by fiscal 2026, is likely to have contributed to margin stability in the to-be-reported quarter.

What Our Model Says About MTN Stock

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Vail Resorts this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is the case here.

Earnings ESP for MTN: Vail Resorts has an Earnings ESP of +1.64%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

MTN’s Zacks Rank: The company has a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Recent Consumer Discretionary Releases

Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. HLT reported exceptional fourth-quarter 2024 results, wherein adjusted earnings and total revenues surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate and grew year over year.

The company's performance was backed by strong demand for leisure travel, with continued growth in business transient and group travel. These robust trends supported growth in occupancy and average daily rate, resulting in increased revenue per available room. Furthermore, favorable net unit growth compared with last year and the continuous efforts in expanding the portfolio globally added to the uptrend. HLT expects the robust travel trends to continue into 2025, positioning it to deliver strong results in the near term.

Mattel, Inc. MAT reported fourth-quarter 2024 results, with earnings beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate and revenues missing the same. The top and bottom lines increased on a year-over-year basis.

In 2024, Mattel repurchased $400 million worth of shares and improved its leverage ratio. The company remains ahead of schedule in achieving its $200 million cost-savings target by 2026. For 2025, Mattel projects continued revenue and earnings growth, increased investments in digital gaming and a $600 million share repurchase program, underscoring its commitment to long-term shareholder value creation. MAT anticipates its adjusted EPS in 2025 to be between $1.66 and $1.72 compared with $1.62 reported in 2024.

Marriott International, Inc. MAR reported fourth-quarter 2024 results, with adjusted earnings and revenues beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate. The top line increased year over year while the bottom line declined from the prior-year quarter.

Marriott posted strong results in 2024, driven by steady global travel demand and strategic portfolio expansion. The company’s development momentum remained strong, with the signing of a record number of new deals and its development pipeline reaching 577,000 rooms. Given its vast global footprint, a loyalty program comprising nearly 228 million Marriott Bonvoy members and an asset-light model, MAR remains well-positioned to capitalize on travel demand and drive growth in the upcoming periods.

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