Smartpay Holdings Limited (NZSE:SPY) shares have had a really impressive month, gaining 26% after a shaky period beforehand. But the last month did very little to improve the 56% share price decline over the last year.

Since its price has surged higher, Smartpay Holdings' price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 23.6x might make it look like a sell right now compared to the market in New Zealand, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 19x and even P/E's below 13x are quite common. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's as high as it is.

As an illustration, earnings have deteriorated at Smartpay Holdings over the last year, which is not ideal at all. One possibility is that the P/E is high because investors think the company will still do enough to outperform the broader market in the near future. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

Check out our latest analysis for Smartpay Holdings

NZSE:SPY Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry March 4th 2025

Want the full picture on earnings, revenue and cash flow for the company? Then our free report on Smartpay Holdings will help you shine a light on its historical performance.

What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/E?

Smartpay Holdings' P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver solid growth, and importantly, perform better than the market.

Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 16%. This has erased any of its gains during the last three years, with practically no change in EPS being achieved in total. Accordingly, shareholders probably wouldn't have been overly satisfied with the unstable medium-term growth rates.

This is in contrast to the rest of the market, which is expected to grow by 38% over the next year, materially higher than the company's recent medium-term annualised growth rates.

In light of this, it's alarming that Smartpay Holdings' P/E sits above the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. There's a good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with recent growth rates.

What We Can Learn From Smartpay Holdings' P/E?

Smartpay Holdings shares have received a push in the right direction, but its P/E is elevated too. It's argued the price-to-earnings ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.

Our examination of Smartpay Holdings revealed its three-year earnings trends aren't impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted, given they look worse than current market expectations. When we see weak earnings with slower than market growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

Before you take the next step, you should know about the 3 warning signs for Smartpay Holdings (1 makes us a bit uncomfortable!) that we have uncovered.

If you're unsure about the strength of Smartpay Holdings' business, why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals for some other companies you may have missed.

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