Trump's Upcoming Crypto Summit Is in Focus. Here Are Catalysts That Could Refuel Bitcoin's Rally

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President Donald Trump will host his first White House crypto summit this Friday. However, it may not be enough to lift up bitcoin's price, which has struggled lately as concerns around tariffs weigh on all risk assets, some analysts noted.

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) climbed above $94,000 last Sunday, after Trump said his proposed crypto reserve would include not only bitcoin and ether (ETHUSD) but also XRP (XRPUSD), solana (SOLUSD) and cardano (ADAUSD). However, the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization erased all its gains one day later and tumbled below $83,000 on Tuesday. It rebounded to trade near $90,000 on Wednesday, albeit still more than 17% off its record high at $109,225 reached on Jan. 20, the day of Trump's inauguration.

Bitcoin has been trading mostly in lockstep with stocks for the past few days, though many bitcoin bulls hope the crypto will eventually been seen as a store-of-value asset.

For bitcoin to potentially resume its rally, investors will first need to see market sentiment stabilize, according to Alex Tapscott, managing director and portfolio manager at Canadian alternative investment manager Ninepoint Partners. Investors have been selling risk assets and seeking safe havens amid worries that Trump's tariff plans might lead to a reheating of inflation, which may hinder the Federal Reserve from cutting its key interest rate this year.

"From time to time, I can see a scenario where the stock market is flat while bitcoin is doing very well. I cannot see a scenario where the stock market is crashing and bitcoin is doing well," Tapscott said.

U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Wednesday after Trump said he would grant a one-month exemption from new tariffs on automobile imports from Mexico and Canada.

Meanwhile, while crypto investors had celebrated Trump's executive order setting up a crypto working group - which is expected to propose a federal regulatory framework governing the issuance and operation of digital assets - they are still waiting for concrete legislation.

Such legislation, if it materializes, may heighten institutional adoption, which could serve as the real catalyst for crypto's next rally, noted Tapscott.

The Friday summit

Tapscott said he thinks it's unlikely that Trump's crypto summit on Friday will trigger significant price action for bitcoin.

"I think the market is going to learn with time to start to discount presidential proclamations," Tapscott said in a phone interview. "I frankly don't think the U.S. president or anyone needs to be coming out with big proclamations constantly. What they need to do is focus on the hard work of creating a policy framework that will allow the industry to grow and to develop in the United States. I don't know if that's something that they will announce at this meeting."

Attendees of the meeting will include executives of crypto companies such as Coinbase $(COIN)$, Chainlink and Exodus $(EXOD)$, according to a CoinDesk report.

Investors are more focused on potential legislation that may incentivize more mainstream companies and investors to embrace crypto, Tapscott said.

Notably, they are watching whether Congress will pass a bipartisan stablecoin bill introduced last month by Sens. Bill Hagerty of Tennessee, Tim Scott of South Carolina, Kirsten Gillibrand of New York and Cynthia Lummis of Wyoming, which could open the pathway for more financial institutions to issue their own stablecoins.

Stablecoin are cryptocurrencies that have their value pegged to another asset, such as fiat currencies like the U.S. dollar or commodities.

The bill aims to establish a regulatory framework for stablecoins and their issuers. It proposes that financial institutions that issue stablecoins with a market value of $10 billion or more be overseen by the Federal Reserve, while the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency would oversee nonbank issuers of payment stablecoins.

Crypto investors are also hoping that the SEC will approve more exchange-traded products investing in crypto. Notably, they are waiting to see if the agency will approve ETFs investing in smaller tokens such as solana, XRP and cardano, and if it will allow ether ETFs to stake the ether they hold, locking up the crypto for a yield. They are also watching whether the SEC will approve ETFs that invest in a basket of crypto assets, which could allow investors to diversify their crypto investments through their traditional brokerage accounts, Tapscott noted.

Crypto in a snap

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) rose 8% over the past seven days to trade at around $90,342 at last check Wednesday. Ether (ETHUSD) fell 4.3% over the past seven days to around $2,236, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

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