Investors in JD Health International Inc. (HKG:6618) had a good week, as its shares rose 5.8% to close at HK$35.75 following the release of its annual results. Revenues were CN¥58b, approximately in line with whatthe analysts expected, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) crushed expectations, coming in at CN¥1.32, an impressive 32% ahead of estimates. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

View our latest analysis for JD Health International

After the latest results, the 16 analysts covering JD Health International are now predicting revenues of CN¥65.8b in 2025. If met, this would reflect a meaningful 13% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to drop 17% to CN¥1.08 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of CN¥64.6b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥1.14 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the small dip in their earnings per share numbers for next year.

Althoughthe analysts have revised their earnings forecasts for next year, they've also lifted the consensus price target 5.9% to HK$37.63, suggesting the revised estimates are not indicative of a weaker long-term future for the business. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values JD Health International at HK$46.08 per share, while the most bearish prices it at HK$21.97. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that JD Health International's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 13% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 29% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 8.4% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while JD Health International's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on JD Health International. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for JD Health International going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

We also provide an overview of the JD Health International Board and CEO remuneration and length of tenure at the company, and whether insiders have been buying the stock, here.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.