If you're not sure where to start when looking for the next multi-bagger, there are a few key trends you should keep an eye out for. Amongst other things, we'll want to see two things; firstly, a growing return on capital employed (ROCE) and secondly, an expansion in the company's amount of capital employed. This shows us that it's a compounding machine, able to continually reinvest its earnings back into the business and generate higher returns. Looking at McDonald's (NYSE:MCD), it does have a high ROCE right now, but lets see how returns are trending.

Understanding Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)

For those who don't know, ROCE is a measure of a company's yearly pre-tax profit (its return), relative to the capital employed in the business. To calculate this metric for McDonald's, this is the formula:

Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)

0.23 = US$12b ÷ (US$55b - US$3.9b) (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2024).

So, McDonald's has an ROCE of 23%. In absolute terms that's a great return and it's even better than the Hospitality industry average of 9.6%.

View our latest analysis for McDonald's

In the above chart we have measured McDonald's' prior ROCE against its prior performance, but the future is arguably more important. If you'd like to see what analysts are forecasting going forward, you should check out our free analyst report for McDonald's .

What Does the ROCE Trend For McDonald's Tell Us?

Over the past five years, McDonald's' ROCE and capital employed have both remained mostly flat. Businesses with these traits tend to be mature and steady operations because they're past the growth phase. Although current returns are high, we'd need more evidence of underlying growth for it to look like a multi-bagger going forward. With fewer investment opportunities, it makes sense that McDonald's has been paying out a decent 57% of its earnings to shareholders. Given the business isn't reinvesting in itself, it makes sense to distribute a portion of earnings among shareholders.

The Bottom Line On McDonald's' ROCE

In summary, McDonald's isn't compounding its earnings but is generating decent returns on the same amount of capital employed. Investors must think there's better things to come because the stock has knocked it out of the park, delivering a 142% gain to shareholders who have held over the last five years. However, unless these underlying trends turn more positive, we wouldn't get our hopes up too high.

McDonald's does have some risks though, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for McDonald's that you might be interested in.

If you'd like to see other companies earning high returns, check out our free list of companies earning high returns with solid balance sheets here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.