By Caitlin McCabe

The big question on everyone's minds these days: Are we headed for a recession?

President Trump over the weekend did little to assuage concerns on the topic. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick had a different answer: "There's going to be no recession in America," he said Sunday. So what are the experts saying?

Economists at global banks are increasingly taking a gloomier outlook, with economists at major banks either upping their recession forecasts or lowering their growth outlooks in recent days. Among them:

-- JPMorgan Chase economists on Monday raised their risk of a recession this year to 40%, up from 30% at the start of the year. "We see a material risk that the U.S. falls into recession this year owing to extreme U.S. policies," wrote a team led by Bruce Kasman.

-- A team of Goldman Sachs economists led by Jan Hatzius on Friday said it was raising its 12-month recession probability to 20%, up from 15%. The bank noted that its forecast could rise further if the Trump administration remains "committed to its policies even in the face of much worse data." The bank also left steady its forecast of two rate cuts this year.

-- Economists at Morgan Stanley led by Michael Gapen lowered their economic growth forecasts last week and raised their inflation expectations, an unwelcome mix. The bank now expects real GDP growth of 1.5% in 2025 and 1.2% in 2026, down from previous estimates. It also expects the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge-the personal-consumption-expenditures price index-to rise 2.5% year-over-year this December, up from 2.3% previously. (For context: Headline PCE rose by 2.5% January, down from 2.6% in December.)

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(END) Dow Jones Newswires

March 10, 2025 09:42 ET (13:42 GMT)

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