By Alistair MacDonald

American defense companies have increased their dominance of the global arms trade, buoyed by European nations snapping up U.S. jet fighters and missiles.

The U.S. accounted for 43% of global weapons exports over the past five years, up from 35% in the previous five-year period, according to new data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, a think tank.

The Sipri data show how the U.S. arms industry has been the key beneficiary of rising European defense budgets in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine and as President Trump pushes the region to increase military spending.

America's F-35 jet fighter, for instance, has been bought or ordered by 13 different European countries, including Britain, Germany and Italy. European countries have also stocked up on Patriot air-defense systems, Himars rocket systems and other U.S. equipment.

But the Trump administration's decision to cut off deliveries of U.S. weapons, spare parts and intelligence to Ukraine has sparked concern in some European nations that Washington could do the same to them some day. That might now affect Europe's appetite for U.S. weapons, analysts and some lawmakers say.

"This debate has certainly started," said Sebastian Schäfer, a German lawmaker who sits on a parliamentary defense-spending committee.

Overall arms imports by European members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization more than doubled in the five years ended in 2024, compared with the five years ended in 2019, Sipri said. Almost two-thirds of those imports came from the U.S., up from just over half in the previous period.

Elsewhere, imports to China fell 64% as it made more of its own weapons, Sipri said. China is also taking in fewer imports because Russia, a traditional supplier, is keeping weapons it makes for its war with Ukraine.

Sipri, an authority on arms trade and production, uses multiyear periods because annual figures can be distorted by large deliveries; it bases its figures on a points system that calculates the military value of arms exports.

European spending on defense is likely to keep rising. Earlier this month, Germany said it would exempt military spending from its strict fiscal rules. The U.K. and Denmark have also announced plans to spend more on defense, while the European Union has proposed a $158 billion fund to bolster military spending and support Ukraine.

French President Emmanuel Macron has for years called on European nations to buy more weapons locally, in part to ensure sovereign control over them. France is now the world's second-largest arms exporter -- having leapfrogged Russia -- and accounted for almost 10% of global shipments in the five years ended in 2024, according to Sipri's data.

Buyers of foreign weapons are typically dependent on the seller for spare parts, continued expertise and even the ability to update and run software on their equipment.

"If the U.S. has indeed restricted access to software in military capability already supplied to an ally, it will have profound implications for the future foreign sales," said Philip Dunne, a former British government minister in charge of defense procurement and exports.

In a sign of the sensitivities, the U.K.'s Defense Ministry announced a major purchase of drones for Ukraine on Thursday and described their manufacturer, Anduril, as Anglo-American. California-based Anduril, which manufactures in the U.S., describes itself as an American company. The ministry declined to comment.

On Sunday, Elon Musk suggested that he could stop the Ukranian military from using Starlink, the SpaceX-developed satellite internet-service provider. Poland's foreign minister tweeted in response that his country, which pays Starlink for Ukraine's use of it, would look for an alternative supplier if the company stops being a reliable provider.

European defense stocks have rallied in recent weeks on news of spending increases. Shares of Britain's BAE Systems, the region's largest defense contractor, are up more than a third so far this year. Germany's Rheinmetall and radar maker Hensoldt are both up more than 80% year to date.

By contrast, U.S. defense stocks, including Lockheed Martin, are flat to lower this year.

To be sure, some analysts say Europe will likely remain a crucial buyer of U.S. weapons.

For a start, there are some military capabilities that Europe can only get from the U.S. The F-35, for example, is a generation ahead of European jet fighters and isn't expected to have a peer in Europe for a decade. Europe also doesn't have a land-based missile-defense system that can cope with ballistic missiles as effectively as America's Patriot or Thaad systems.

It would be difficult for Europe and the U.S. to extricate themselves from each other's weapons supply. The U.S., for instance, provides the missiles for Britain's submarine-based nuclear deterrent, while U.K. companies supply various components for the F-35. U.S. companies also have plans to manufacture more in Europe.

But for Wolfgang Ischinger, a former German ambassador to Washington who now heads a defense conference, there is now a potential issue of trust with the U.S.

"If it is possible that with some stroke of the pen, the U.S. can stop intelligence cooperation and even weapon deliveries that are already in transit on the way to Ukraine, what does this signal to us?" Ischinger said. "It signals that nothing should be taken for granted."

Write to Alistair MacDonald at Alistair.Macdonald@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

March 09, 2025 19:01 ET (23:01 GMT)

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