0036 GMT - Commonwealth Bank of Australia is seen by Morningstar analysts as a good example of equity markets' failure to always reflect the true value of a business. They reckon that Australia's largest bank is worth about A$98.00 a share, or roughly 10% more than it was at the start of 2024. However, the company's shares have jumped about 40% in that time. The analysts tell clients in a note that for that move to be justified, expectations for all the cash the bank will ever earn--on a discounted basis--would have to be 40% higher than they were a year ago. They concede that they might be wrong on their specific valuation, but insist that the magnitude of the share-price move looks extremely hard to support. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0021 GMT - The overall picture from Australia's February company earnings season looks surprisingly normal given the wild swings in global equities, according to analysts at Morningstar. The analysts upgrade their forecasts for about a third of the companies they cover, which they point out in a note to clients is very close to their historical average. At 4%, the scale of the upgrade is exactly at their historical average, they observe. A similar pattern is seen among those company forecasts they elected to downgrade. "Overall, things appear pretty typical," they reckon. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

2329 GMT - Higher Mexican tequila production in February supports Orora's view that orders with its Saverglass unit have been strengthening since November, Barrenjoey says. Mexican tequila output rose by 8% last month compared to a year earlier, following flat production growth in January. Tequila exports increased 24% in February, representing the third consecutive month of more than 20% growth, which analyst Brook Campbell-Crawford thinks could be tariff-related. "Tequila exports have remained positive in every month of FY 2025 so far, which suggests to us that U.S. distributor/retailer destocking in tequila categories could be close to completion," Barrenjoey says. "This should be a lead for production given the U.S. consumes nearly half of Mexican tequila produced." (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

2323 GMT - Synlait Milk's turnaround has been quicker than Bell Potter analyst Jonathan Snape anticipated, but question marks remain over the future of the dairy producer's advanced nutrition business. Snape tells clients that the pace of the turnaround has been reflected by a rally in Synlait's shares. He calls out the improvement in Synlait's ingredients business, continued cost control, and new business development within advanced nutrition. However, he warns that the latter could take a hit if a2 Milk, which had an exclusivity agreement with Synlait until January 2025, vertically integrates into supply chain assets. Bell Potter raises its target price to A$0.90 from A$0.425, and maintains a hold rating. Shares are up 2.5% at A$0.83. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

2322 GMT - The departure of Westpac's consumer chief increases the Australian bank's execution risk, Morgan Stanley analyst Richard E. Wiles says. Writing in a note to clients, Wiles points out that Westpac is already looking for a new chief financial officer, has only just appointed a new business and wealth chief, and is also ramping up the overhaul of its tech platforms. Westpac's consumer unit accounted for 30% of fiscal 2024 profit and franchise performance improved under Jason Yetton's leadership, Wiles adds. MS has an underweight rating and A$29.20 target price on the stock, which is up 0.1% at A$30.59. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

2249 GMT - Any further bids for Insignia Financial are unlikely to represent much of an advance on the A$5.00/share proposed by its current private-equity suitors, Barrenjoey analysts write in a note. Analysts Andrew Adams and Niva Chandrasekaran tell clients that there is scope for higher bids but any increase is likely to come at a much smaller increment than those seen in the process so far. They highlight the Australian wealth manager's acknowledgement that it plans to recommend an acquisition at A$5.00/share, in the absence of any superior proposal. Barrenjoey lowers its recommendation to neutral from overweight and keeps a A$4.95 target price, which includes a 10% takeover premium. Shares are at A$4.68 ahead of the open. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

2248 GMT - Wednesday could be a good day for Orica investors betting on additional capital management. Barrenjoey believes Orica could announce an on-market share buyback program worth around A$500 million during its investor day, pointing to the headroom to its 30-40% gearing target. Analyst Brook Campbell-Crawford says the investor day could also offer more color on medium-term financial targets for Orica's Digital division. It thinks this would be well received by investors. "We have an overweight rating on Orica given its strong growth outlook, prospect for capital returns, and attractive valuation of 16x near-term EPS (versus its 5-year average of 18x)," Barrenjoey says. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

2238 GMT - Fonterra Shareholders' Fund rises 5% after the dairy cooperative upgrades its annual earnings view, putting the stock within sight of a new seven-year high. Fonterra now expects EPS of NZ$0.55-NZ$0.75 in FY 2025. That's up from prior EPS guidance of NZ$0.40-NZ$0.60. CEO Miles Hurrell says the upgrade reflects the underlying strength of Fonterra's core Ingredients business. It also signals resilience in the Consumer business that Fonterra wants to sell, raising investors' hopes that it will attract a favorable price from prospective buyers. Fonterra is at NZ$5.45 today, moving within sight of NZ$5.59 that represents its peak over the past 12 months and which was its highest level since January 2018. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

2229 GMT - The risk of new delays to Deep Yellow's Tumas project helps to keep Jefferies at underperform on the aspiring uranium producer. Deep Yellow aims to make a final investment decision on Tumas this month, while arranging a debt package and finding offtake partners. Current pre-production capex is estimated at US$360 million, plus US$51 million in pre-production capitalized operating costs, and US$30 million in working capital. "We see risk of elevated capex and project delays to the 2026 first production timeline," says analyst Daniel Roden. "Deep Yellow has also stated the development of Tumas will only be pursued with an unquantified supportive uranium price to provide the best shareholder returns." (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

2221 GMT - TPG Telecom's move to raise prices for some of its postpaid mobile customers is unlikely to have an impact on the Australian company's full-year outlook, Barrenjoey analyst Eric Choi says. He writes in a note to clients that TPG appears to be addressing the 20% of its Vodafone Australia back-book that it missed when raising prices last year. He thinks the oversight was likely due to TPG being in the midst of simplifying its plans. The latest move could add about A$15 million in 2025 revenue but is probably already captured by existing guidance, Choi adds. Barrenjoey has a neutral rating and A$5.25 target price on the stock, which is at A$4.47 ahead of Monday's session. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

2211 GMT - Uranium prices may have fallen 12% so far this year but Jefferies believes the medium-term outlook for the nuclear fuel remains bright. It attributes recent weakness in uranium prices to heightened geopolitical and macro uncertainties, cautious utility buying, and increased confidence in supply. "The risk-off environment has largely kept buyers out of the spot market, while U.S. utilities continue to engage in the term market, with 11 term awards totalling 15.3 million lbs already secured in 2025," analyst Daniel Roden says. That has driven a widening contango between term prices of uranium at US$80.00/lb and spot prices of US$63.95/lb. Still, Jefferies stays constructive on the medium-term outlook, supported by disciplined production strategies, supply deficits, and rising global reactor demand from China, U.S. and Europe. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

March 09, 2025 23:58 ET (03:58 GMT)

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