The latest Market Talks covering Energy markets. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

By Anthony Harrup The U.S. Energy Information Administration raised its estimates for U.S. natural gas prices, citing the current inventory deficit and higher demand for electricity generation and liquefied natural gas exports.

In its Short-Term Energy Outlook, the EIA on Tuesday estimated that Henry Hub spot prices this year will average $4.20 per million British thermal units, up from $3.80 in its previous forecast. For 2026, the agency forecasts an average price of $4.50/mmBtu, boosted by growing global demand for LNG.

After large inventory draws in January and February due to cold weather that drove heating demand, the EIA expects natural gas in underground storage to end the November-March winter withdrawal season below 1.7 trillion cubic feet, or 10% less than the five-year average.

Electricity consumption is expected to increase 3% this year, with higher residential use related to heating demand in January and February along with commercial sector use rising with the expansion of data centers. The EIA sees a corresponding 3% increase in electricity generation, up from its previous 2% forecast.

"We now expect the electric power sector will use more than 36 billion cubic feet per day of natural gas on average in 2025 and 2026, 2% and 1% more, respectively, than last month," the EIA said.

Natural gas production is forecast to grow by 2% in both 2025 and 2026. Write to Anthony Harrup at anthony.harrup@wsj.com

By Anthony Harrup The U.S. Energy Information Administration expects crude oil prices to recover from February's losses as U.S. sanctions against Iranian and Venezuelan crude limit output, delaying a buildup in global inventories until the third quarter of the year.

"Although crude oil prices fell in February and were near $70 a barrel in the first week of March, we expect key upward price pressures will push the Brent price back into the mid-$70 a barrel range in the coming months," the EIA said Tuesday in its Short-Term Energy Outlook.

The agency expects Brent to reach $75 by the third quarter, averaging $74 a barrel this year and $68 a barrel in 2026. It forecasts U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude at $71 a barrel this year and $65 a barrel in 2026.

New U.S. sanctions on Iranian crude oil issued in late February have the potential to remove significant volumes of oil from the market, while the revocation of licenses for Venezuelan oil production and export to the U.S. will reduce the South American country's production in March, "tightening near-term oil market balances significantly" compared with the previous forecast, the EIA said.

"Global oil markets will remain relatively tight through the middle of 2025 before gradually shifting to oil inventory builds later this year," the EIA said. Increasing inventories are expected to put downward pressure on crude oil prices in late-2025 and through 2026.

The agency expects OPEC and its allies to raise output during the next two years, although the flexibility in the OPEC+ plan to gradually return withheld production beginning in April "leaves some uncertainty about whether increases will materialize in line with the announcement," the EIA said.

The agency attributed the February drop in oil prices largely to economic concerns related to trade tariffs announced by the U.S. and other countries, which has added to uncertainty about oil demand growth, while a potential ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine war could bring additional barrels to the market.

The EIA expects world oil production to rise by 1.4 million barrels a day this year and by 1.6 million barrels a day in 2026. Consumption is seen increasing by 1.3 million barrels a day this year and by 1.2 million barrels a day in 2026. Write to Anthony Harrup at anthony.harrup@wsj.com

1143 ET - Oil prices pare back some gains after U.S. President Trump raised his planned tariffs on aluminum and steel imports from Canada, fueling concerns over the impact of his trade policies on global markets. Brent crude and WTI are both up 1.2% to $70.13 and $66.82 a barrel, respectively, after rising as much as 1.5% earlier in the session on a weaker U.S. dollar. Fears of a severe economic downturn and risks of multiple trade wars hurting global demand are weighing on sentiment, particularly as OPEC+ prepares to increase output. "Scaling back or abolishing punitive measures will ease the fears of economic contraction or inflation and halt the stock market slump, especially if coupled with a mutually acceptable Ukrainian-Russian peace deal," analysts at oil broker PVM say. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

1004 ET - Oil futures pick up after yesterday's risk-off selling prompted by big stock market losses attributed to recession fears. Limited oil market losses were "suggesting that a recession is not in the cards," Phil Flynn of the Price Futures Group says in a note. Oil was also helped by Energy Secretary Chris Wright's comments that tariffs on Canada and Mexico could be withdrawn before they go into effect next month, while suggestions the administration is serious about refilling the Strategic Petroleum Reserve "make it unlikely that we will fall below $60 in the short term," he adds. WTI is up 1.5% at $67.04 a barrel and Brent is 1.5% higher at $70.31 a barrel. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

0920 ET - U.S. natural gas futures are higher with the market showing little concern about warming March temperature forecasts that suggest a bearish tail end of the winter storage withdrawal season. Solid LNG exports and tight supplies are supporting prices, although for the first time in months weather trends are failing to match price moves, forecaster NatGasWeather.com says in a note. "Very light national demand will continue through the weekend as warmer than normal high pressure rules most of the interior U.S." The Nymex front month is up 1.5% at $4.558/mmBtu. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

0802 ET - OPEC and its allies could potentially pause their output hike plans in the third quarter of the year, according to Commerzbank Research's Carsten Fritsch. "We consider it unlikely that OPEC+ will backpedal shortly after the decision to raise production slightly. This would send out a signal of weakness and look like admitting a mistake," the commodity analyst says. "However, it is conceivable that the production increase will be paused after the end of the second quarter if market conditions require so." Commerzbank forecasts Brent crude at $70 a barrel in the second quarter and $75 a barrel in the second half, citing a potential reduction in global supplies due to U.S. sanctions against Iran. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

0757 ET - Political developments in Germany suggest the risk has increased that the draft fiscal stimulus package agreed by the likely incoming governing coalition won't reach the required two-thirds majority in parliament, ING's Carsten Brzeski says. The Greens, who are needed to pass the threshold, voiced opposition to the current plan, which incorporate a 500 billion euro infrastructure fund and reform to the debt brake. Their concerns include lack of climate commitments, but also considerable interpersonal tensions between the sides, Brzeski says. Possible options include new climate investments in the draft law, or dropping the infrastructure fund. But failure is almost not an option as it could end coalition talks and potentially push Germany into a political crisis, he says. (edward.frankl@wsj.com)

0729 ET - Brent crude settled 1.5% lower in the previous trading session, showing some resilience despite significant bearishness in the market, according to SEB's chief commodities analyst Bjarne Schieldrop. "Amid such an overall bearish market sentiment, one could argue that the 1.5% decline in Brent crude yesterday was a fairly limited decline," he says. "Maybe because Brent has sold off so extensively since mid-January and thus has taken out a lot of downside action already." For prices to drop further, Schieldrop says the spread between one-month and three-month contracts would need to narrow. "The 1-3 month time-spreads are holding quite steady. No rapid deterioration to be seen yet," he says. In midday trade, Brent is up 1.1% at $70.06 a barrel. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

0616 ET - The European Union's attempt to bolster its own defense capabilities will have good spillover effects for the bloc's economy, Ursula von der Leyen, the European Commission's president, says at a debate at the European parliament. "All of this will have positive spillovers for our economy and our competitiveness," she says, referring to the EU's plan to mobilize up to 800 billion euros for European defense spending. This includes a new 150 billion-euro loan facility to help countries invest in key areas such as air defense, missiles and drones via joint procurement. Von der Leyen says investments that EU member states make will in turn see factories set up and create jobs. This could benefit a broader range of sectors including steel, space, transport and artificial intelligence, she says. (edith.hancock@wsj.com)

0605 ET - BP's net debt is likely to rise through 2025 despite the oil-major targeting a reduction, RBC Capital Markets analysts Biraj Borkhataria and Adnan Dhanani write. Under its revised strategy, BP aims to reduce net debt to between $14 billion and $18 billion via cost savings and divestments from around $23 billion. However, under a $65-a-barrel scenario in 2025, net debt it likely to rise given it will take a while for inflows from divestments, the analysts write. BP will need a supportive macroeconomic environment in order to deliver on its net debt target, they write. Shares trade up 0.7% to 421.20 pence. (adam.whittaker@wsj.com)

0540 ET - European natural-gas prices rise as traders grow more cautious about the prospect of a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine ahead of talks between U.S. and Ukrainian officials later on Tuesday. The benchmark Dutch TTF contract trades 1.2% higher to 41.75 euros a megawatt hour. However, prices are down nearly 28% on the month after EU officials delayed the release of a proposal aimed at ending the bloc's reliance on Russian fossil fuel imports and the European Commission recommended more flexible storage filling targets. According to industry group Gas Infrastructure Europe, EU gas storage caverns are currently 36.7% full. "With the heating season coming to an end, the specter of refilling storage sites amid a competitive market for LNG cargoes is likely to keep volatility high," ANZ Research analysts say. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

0512 ET - Oil prices edge higher in early trade but remain under significant pressure, with Brent crude still trading below $70 a barrel amid concerns over a weak economic outlook and U.S. tariffs. Fears of escalating trade tensions and OPEC+'s plans to start raising output next month continue to weigh on sentiment, while U.S. President Trump's comments on "a period of transition" for the U.S. economy have added to the bearish mood. "Trump's comments triggered a wave of selling as investors started pricing in the risk of weaker growth in demand," analysts at ANZ Research say. Meanwhile, China's consumer inflation fell more than expected, further raising concerns over demand in the world's top crude importer. In early trade, Brent is up 0.5% to $69.63 a barrel, while WTI rises 0.4% to $66.33 a barrel. Both benchmarks are down more than 9% on the month. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

March 11, 2025 14:52 ET (18:52 GMT)

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