JAKKS Pacific, Inc. (NASDAQ:JAKK) shareholders have seen the share price descend 22% over the month. But over five years returns have been remarkably great. In fact, during that period, the share price climbed 559%. Impressive! Arguably, the recent fall is to be expected after such a strong rise. The most important thing for savvy investors to consider is whether the underlying business can justify the share price gain. It really delights us to see such great share price performance for investors.
Let's take a look at the underlying fundamentals over the longer term, and see if they've been consistent with shareholders returns.
See our latest analysis for JAKKS Pacific
In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).
During the five years of share price growth, JAKKS Pacific moved from a loss to profitability. Sometimes, the start of profitability is a major inflection point that can signal fast earnings growth to come, which in turn justifies very strong share price gains.
The company's earnings per share (over time) is depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).
We consider it positive that insiders have made significant purchases in the last year. Even so, future earnings will be far more important to whether current shareholders make money. Dive deeper into the earnings by checking this interactive graph of JAKKS Pacific's earnings, revenue and cash flow.
When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. We note that for JAKKS Pacific the TSR over the last 5 years was 565%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!
It's nice to see that JAKKS Pacific shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 16% over the last year. And that does include the dividend. However, the TSR over five years, coming in at 46% per year, is even more impressive. The pessimistic view would be that be that the stock has its best days behind it, but on the other hand the price might simply be moderating while the business itself continues to execute. It is all well and good that insiders have been buying shares, but we suggest you check here to see what price insiders were buying at.
JAKKS Pacific is not the only stock insiders are buying. So take a peek at this free list of small cap companies at attractive valuations which insiders have been buying.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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