The Bank of Canada is all but assured to lower its overnight target by 25 basis points on Wednesday, the presumptive move marking the seventh straight rate cut and bringing the policy rate to the mid-point of the estimated neutral range, said National Bank of Canada.

The BoC is slated to make its policy decision at 9:45 a.m. ET on Wednesday.

Unlike prior decisions though, easing will be less about absorbing already-accumulated economic slack and more about supporting an economy mired in trade conflict, noted the bank.

Indeed, in normal times, recent data would likely be consistent with holding steady on the policy rate, as gross domestic product and jobs growth pick up and underlying inflation firms. However, Canada's central bank was already leaning dovish, with Governonor Tiff Macklem stressing that trade uncertainty alone was "doing damage" so it's not clear that these data will matter much for this decision.

In addition, at least on Jan. 29, policymakers were casting doubt on the legitimacy of the jobs rebound and the signal that its preferred core inflation indicators were providing.

Going forward, the rate outlook is highly uncertain, dependent on geopolitical developments and their economic impacts, stated National Bank.

Accordingly, the BoC should refrain from offering explicit guidance, but a cautious tone is likely to characterize the rate statement. That should leave markets leaning toward another cut in April, added the bank.

Having announced the end of quantitative tightening (QT) in January, National Bank doesn't expect to learn more on balance sheet plans beyond March's term repo operations. Details on future T-bill purchases will come later in the year.

Wednesday's decision won't be accompanied by a Monetary Policy Report, so updated growth and inflation projections won't be provided.

Governor Macklem and Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers are expected to be quizzed on their reaction to United States trade tariffs and related uncertainty in the post-decision press conference, added the bank.