Is Occidental Petroleum Corporation (NYSE:OXY) Trading At A 47% Discount?

Simply Wall St.
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Key Insights

  • Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, Occidental Petroleum fair value estimate is US$87.66
  • Occidental Petroleum is estimated to be 47% undervalued based on current share price of US$46.53
  • Analyst price target for OXY is US$59.70 which is 32% below our fair value estimate

Does the March share price for Occidental Petroleum Corporation (NYSE:OXY) reflect what it's really worth? Today, we will estimate the stock's intrinsic value by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to today's value. We will use the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model on this occasion. Don't get put off by the jargon, the math behind it is actually quite straightforward.

We would caution that there are many ways of valuing a company and, like the DCF, each technique has advantages and disadvantages in certain scenarios. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.

View our latest analysis for Occidental Petroleum

The Calculation

We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034
Levered FCF ($, Millions) US$4.63b US$5.47b US$5.44b US$5.40b US$5.50b US$5.55b US$5.63b US$5.74b US$5.86b US$5.99b
Growth Rate Estimate Source Analyst x7 Analyst x6 Analyst x2 Analyst x2 Analyst x2 Est @ 0.90% Est @ 1.45% Est @ 1.84% Est @ 2.11% Est @ 2.31%
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 8.6% US$4.3k US$4.6k US$4.3k US$3.9k US$3.7k US$3.4k US$3.2k US$3.0k US$2.8k US$2.6k

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$36b

We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.8%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 8.6%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2034 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$6.0b× (1 + 2.8%) ÷ (8.6%– 2.8%) = US$106b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$106b÷ ( 1 + 8.6%)10= US$47b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is US$82b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of US$46.5, the company appears quite good value at a 47% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.

NYSE:OXY Discounted Cash Flow March 16th 2025

The Assumptions

We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Occidental Petroleum as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 8.6%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.341. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for Occidental Petroleum

Strength
  • Debt is well covered by earnings and cashflows.
  • Dividends are covered by earnings and cash flows.
    Dividend information for OXY.
Weakness
  • Earnings declined over the past year.
  • Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Oil and Gas market.
Opportunity
  • Annual earnings are forecast to grow faster than the American market.
  • Trading below our estimate of fair value by more than 20%.
Threat
  • Annual revenue is forecast to grow slower than the American market.
    What else are analysts forecasting for OXY?

Next Steps:

Whilst important, the DCF calculation shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. Why is the intrinsic value higher than the current share price? For Occidental Petroleum, there are three essential items you should explore:

  1. Risks: For instance, we've identified 4 warning signs for Occidental Petroleum that you should be aware of.
  2. Future Earnings: How does OXY's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
  3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every American stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

免責聲明:投資有風險,本文並非投資建議,以上內容不應被視為任何金融產品的購買或出售要約、建議或邀請,作者或其他用戶的任何相關討論、評論或帖子也不應被視為此類內容。本文僅供一般參考,不考慮您的個人投資目標、財務狀況或需求。TTM對信息的準確性和完整性不承擔任何責任或保證,投資者應自行研究並在投資前尋求專業建議。

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