Al Root

SpaceX might have a bigger lead over its competition than any company has over any peer in any industry.

That dominance, counterintuitively, might become a problem for Elon Musk's rocket company. President Donald Trump, Ukraine, and Russia could provide the spark for new competition.

"In recent weeks, there appears to be a potentially tectonic shift occurring in the satcom landscape ignited by geopolitics," wrote Deutsche Bank analyst Edison Yu in a Thursday report.

The drama starts in Ukraine, where Yu estimates there are more than 70,000 terminals for Starlink, SpaceX's space-based Wi-Fi service. It is used by governments, companies, and individuals, who can sign up and even buy Starlink hardware at Home Depot.

Although it was quickly reversed, President Donald Trump's recent decision to stop sharing intelligence with Ukraine in its war with Russia left it and Ukraine's European allies scrambling to find non-U. S. communications alternatives. Starlink didn't suspend service, but Trump's move underlined Ukraine's dependence on it.

"The four major satellite operators in Europe ( Eutelsat, SES, Hisdesat, and Viasat/Inmarsat) are reportedly in talks to provide alternatives to Starlink," added Yu.

Coming into Thursday trading, Eutelsat stock was up 467% since Trump, Vice President JD Vance, and Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky clashed in the Oval Office on Feb. 28.

There is a problem, though. Starlink's lead is tough to overstate. SpaceX, at last count, had more than 7,000 working satellites in low Earth orbit and about 5 million subscribers. In November, SpaceX COO Gywnne Shotwell said Starlink is profitable.

Italian aerospace and defense company Leonardo said earlier this week that it wants to build a constellation to compete with SpaceX. Leonardo plans to have 40 satellites in orbit by 2028. Not all satellites have the same ability to handle data, but the scale and time illustrate the gap.

Things have gotten this way because SpaceX is the one with the rockets. SpaceX pioneered reusable rockets. That means it has dramatically lower costs and can put satellites in orbit more often.

SpaceX has launched 28 rockets in 2025, which is 58% of the world's total. It was 82% of launches excluding Russia and China, a percentage that is moving higher. SpaceX accounted for about 78% of non-Chinese and Russian launches in 2024 and 72% in 2023.

Jeff Bezos' Blue Origin is also working on reusable rockets. A breakthrough could mean the rise of a launch competitor that others could use to send satellites into space. Blue Origin has launch contracts with Amazon.com, which is planning a satellite communications constellation called Kuiper.

Blue Origin has only completed one orbital launch, however. Reaching space remains hard.

Even SpaceX has hiccups. On Wednesday, the company scrubbed its Crew-10 mission to the International Space Station due to what it called hydraulic "ground issues" related to the clamp arms holding the rocket in place on the launchpad.

The launch has been rescheduled for Friday. The Crew-10 mission will take four astronauts to the ISS. It will eventually return astronauts Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams to Earth.

They were taken to the ISS in a Boeing spaceship, but technical problems prevented Boeing from bringing them home. Wilmore and Williams have been on the space station since June.

It all shows that NASA needs SpaceX. Ukraine needs SpaceX. That reliance is making some SpaceX customers nervous.

Write to Al Root at allen.root@dowjones.com

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March 13, 2025 09:32 ET (13:32 GMT)

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