Below are the most important global events likely to affect FX and bond markets in the week starting March 17.

An interest-rate decision by the U.S. Federal Reserve is likely to be the highlight of events in the coming week as concerns grow about a weakening U.S. economic outlook due to the harmful impact of trade tariffs.

Interest-rate decisions are also due in Japan, the U.K., Switzerland, Sweden, Brazil, Taiwan and Indonesia.

In China, economic indicators will be scrutinized as trade war concerns cast a shadow over the outlook for 2025.

U.S.

The Federal Reserve announces a rate decision Wednesday, where it is widely expected to leave the Fed funds rate at 4.25%-4.50%.

The decision comes against a backdrop of falls in equity markets and growing concerns about the harms that President Trump's tariff policies could do to the economy.

As a result, markets have increased their expectations for interest-rate cuts in 2025. U.S. money markets now price in the potential for three 25 basis-point reductions, having previously priced in only two or even one earlier this year, LSEG data show.

Analysts expect Fed policymakers might do little to cement these expectations, however, instead focusing on the inflationary risks posed by Trump's tariffs and other policies.

"The Fed is likely to sound out of touch with market growth worries," analysts at Bank of America said in a note.

"[Fed Chair Jerome] Powell will likely acknowledge the recent sentiment shift and market drop but signal the Fed is unlikely to over-react," they said, adding that he will likely reiterate that the central bank is in no hurry to cut rates.

"We worry risk assets may hear a Fed insufficiently attentive to downside growth worries that triggers further financial condition tightening," they said.

Bank of America expect the Fed to announce a pause in quantitative tightening starting in April.

Analysts at Investec forecast that concerns about inflation risks stemming from the mix of tariffs, anti-immigration measures and tax cuts will prevent the Fed from cutting rates numerous times this year. They forecast just one 25 basis-point reduction in December.

Another key focus during the week will be the need for Congress to pass a resolution to avoid a government shutdown next week, which could add to the risks facing the U.S. economy.

Retail sales figures Monday will provide the highlight among the week's economic data, showing how the U.S. consumer has held up amidst a barrage of headlines about potential tariffs and their impact on inflation.

Bank of America expect another below-consensus reading after recent evidence of "wobbles" in consumer confidence, "bad" personal spending numbers, and last month's weak retail sales data.

U.S. industrial production and housing starts for February are released Tuesday, followed by weekly jobless claims and February existing home sales Thursday.

Focus will also center on any progress in U.S. attempts to broker a ceasefire in Russia's war against Ukraine.

The Treasury will sell $13 billion in 20-year bonds on Tuesday and $18 billion in 10-year inflation-protected TIPS on Thursday.

CANADA

Canada releases consumer-price inflation data for February on Tuesday. The figures come amid heightened concerns about the potential impact on both inflation and growth from tariffs implemented by U.S. President Trump and Canada's retaliatory measures.

The Bank of Canada cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its latest meeting.

The move was partly an attempt to cushion the blow from the continuing trade war but the central bank reiterated that its tools are ill-suited to fully offset the impacts, Desjardins's Royce Mendes said in a note. A rate cut in April will depend on medium- and longer-term inflation expectations remaining anchored, he said.

BRAZIL

Brazil's central bank is expected to raise its key Selic rate by 100 basis points to 14.25%, leaving focus on guidance about whether further rate hikes will be forthcoming.

"Brazil's central bank is all but certain to follow through with a clearly-signaled 100 basis-point hike in the Selic rate to 14.25% next week," said William Jackson, chief emerging markets economist at Capital Economics.

Recent weak activity data could tip the central bank toward ending the current cycle of rate increases at this month's meeting. However, there is also a "very plausible scenario" in which inflation risks prompt another one or two more hikes, albeit of a smaller magnitude, Jackson said in a note.

EUROZONE

In a week light of data in the eurozone, Germany's Ifo economic sentiment index on Monday and ZEW business sentiment index on Tuesday will be the first sentiment surveys that could reveal the impact of the future German government's plans for fiscal expansion on the country's growth outlook.

The eurozone's final inflation data for February is due on Wednesday.

Italian CPI data for February are due Monday, while France's monthly business survey for March is set to be released Friday.

The EU summit will take place from Thursday to Friday.

Slovakia will hold a bond auction on Monday, followed by Finland on Tuesday, Germany on Wednesday, as well as Spain, France and Ireland on Thursday. Germany will tap the August 2050 and August 2053 Bunds.

U.K.

The Bank of England is widely expected to keep the main bank rate unchanged at 4.50% in a decision on Thursday after cutting rates last month, sticking to its mantra that future rate cuts should be gradual.

Analysts expect that concerns over high inflation will dissuade policymakers from opting for back-to-back rate reductions. However, concerns about the growth outlook could result in two out of nine policymakers voting to cut rates, potentially by a large 50 basis points, after recent data showed the U.K. economy contracted by 0.1% in January.

U.K. money markets aren't fully pricing in a rate cut until June, LSEG data show, although Barclays chief U.K. economist Jack Meaning said a reduction in May is likely.

Analysts are divided on the rate outlook for this year, with most forecasting between one and three reductions while money markets price in two cuts.

Jobs data on Thursday will give a steer on the health of the jobs market and on whether wage growth remains high. The latest GfK consumer confidence survey for March is released Friday.

The U.K. is due to auction the March 2028 gilt on Tuesday.

SCANDINAVIA

Sweden's Riksbank announces a rate decision on Thursday, where it is expected to keep the policy rate unchanged at 2.25% after a series of rate cuts that have helped to boost the economy.

"We predict that the rate path will be unchanged compared to December, suggesting that the policy rate will remain at 2.25% until the end of 2027," SEB analysts said in a note.

"Higher inflation in the beginning of 2025 means that the Riksbank could indicate some probability for a rate hike later this year, but unemployment is rising and the recovery in growth still needs to be confirmed," they said.

Denmark and Norway will hold auctions on Wednesday, while Sweden will sell inflation-linked bonds on Thursday.

SWITZERLAND

The Swiss National Bank announces a rate decision Thursday and is expected to cut the policy rate by 25 basis points to 0.25% due to low inflation.

Further rate cuts look unlikely, however, particularly as the central bank will be reluctant to take rates back towards negative territory.

"We think that will be the last cut of the cycle, as underlying price pressures have not been as weak as we anticipated, the franc has depreciated over the last couple of months, and the recent fiscal announcements by the EU and Germany will boost demand in the region," said Adrian Prettejohn, Europe economist at Capital Economics, in a note.

JAPAN

The Bank of Japan is widely expected to hold its policy rate unchanged at 0.5% at its two-day meeting ending Wednesday as it examines the effects of the January rate hike on the economy and prices. Market participants will seek hints on the timing of the central bank's next rate increase at Gov. Kazuo Ueda's post-meeting news conference.

"Ueda is likely to refrain from making comments that indicate an acceleration in the pace of interest-rate hikes, given high uncertainty about the outlook" for the global economy, BNP Paribas economist Ryutaro Kono said.

Still, government data scheduled to be released Friday is likely to show that inflationary pressure remains. The nationwide consumer price index excluding fresh food is expected to have risen 2.9% in February from a year earlier, according to a poll of economists by data provider Quick. That would be slower than January's 3.2% increase but well above the BOJ's target of 2%.

Trade data for February is also due Wednesday. Economists think pre-tariff rush demand may have supported growth in exports.

Japanese markets are closed for a national holiday on Thursday.

CHINA

A string of key economic releases on Monday will shed light into how the Chinese economic recovery is faring at the start of the year.

Housing price data will be watched for more signs of improvement in the property sector, as the market slump continues to drag on. After January figures showed that new home prices dropped just 0.07% on the month, economists at ING are closely tracking the property market numbers to see if there was a swing to sequential growth last month.

Industrial output, retail sales and fixed asset investment data for January-February will also be in focus. Growth in consumption and investment likely accelerated in the two-month period, despite intensifying trade tensions with the U.S., a poll of economists by The Wall Street Journal shows. China combines January and February data to iron out distortions from the Lunar New Year holiday.

Retail sales, a key gauge of consumption, likely expanded 4% from a year ago in the first two months of the year, up from 3.7% in December. Fixed-asset investment is expected to have grown 3.5% on the year in January-February, compared with 3.2% for 2024. Industrial production growth is tipped to have slowed to 5.4% during January-February from December's 6.2%, in part due to high base effects.

The ING economists expect FAI momentum to have remained tepid, as the private sector continues to weigh on growth.

On Thursday, the People's Bank of China will announce loan prime rates-the benchmark for the bulk of corporate and household loans--which are widely anticipated to stay unchanged.

AUSTRALIA & NEW ZEALAND

In Australia, a speech by Sarah Hunter, chief economist at the Reserve Bank of Australia, on Tuesday will be closely watched, especially if she highlights growing worries at the central bank about the escalating international trade war, falling markets, dimming global growth forecasts, and growing tensions in eastern Europe.

The release of employment data for February on Thursday will also attract plenty of eyeballs, given that the RBA's central narrative around the outlook for interest rates is one of caution, amid concerns that the job market remains too tight.

Another month of blistering employment growth and falling unemployment would be enough for economists to water down their expectations for further official interest-rate cuts in the first half of this year.

In New Zealand, fourth-quarter GDP growth data on Thursday are expected to show the economy emerging slowly from recession, helped by aggressive cuts in official interest rates by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand since the middle of last year.

TAIWAN

Taiwan's central bank is widely expected to hold key interest rates steady on Thursday.

Taiwan is one of the few economies in the region that hasn't started cutting rates owing to its robust economy and sticky inflation. After a surprise rate hike early last year, the CBC has held policy settings unchanged. Barclays economists think policymakers could make a hawkish turn due to upcoming electricity price hikes in April that could fan inflation.

For the first two months of the year, Taiwan's consumer price inflation increased 2.12%, still above the key 2% threshold. Exports rose 16.8% on the year, signaling strong demand for its electronic products. However, the island economy isn't immune to a global growth shock, ANZ economists said. "The trade and tariffs tensions present downside risks for Taiwan's export-heavy economic model," economists Vicky Xiao Zhou and Raymond Yeung said.

SINGAPORE

On Monday, Singapore will release non-oil domestic exports data for February. The figures will be watched closely for clues on the city-state's exports performance so far this year, amid growing global trade uncertainty.

NODX likely rebounded last month, reversing from January's 2.1% contraction, according to a WSJ poll. Exports likely rose 6.1% in February, compared to a year ago.

Barclays analysts expect NODX to have rebounded, mainly due to base effects from the earlier Lunar New Year holidays this year.

On Wednesday, the Monetary Authority of Singapore will release its quarterly survey of professional forecasters.

Market participants are likely to be interested in seeing whether the survey respondents still forecast GDP growth at 2.6% this year. They will also monitor projections for a further easing in inflation in 2025.

INDONESIA

Bank Indonesia makes its rate decision on Wednesday, as continued rupiah volatility suggests limited room to ease, but slowing growth backs the case for another cut.

ANZ Research analysts think BI will hold policy settings steady, with conditions for a cut looking unfavorable given the decline in foreign-exchange reserves and renewed weakness in the rupiah. The timing of future rate cuts will depend on the currency's stability, they said.

Citi Research analyst Helmi Arman expects BI to deliver a rate cut amid weakness in the near-term economic growth outlook, as well as the need to support housing demand.

Even with growth and inflation expected to soften, OCBC sees space for only one additional 25-basis-point rate cut this year due to the rupiah depreciation pressures.

BI is "caught between a rock and a hard place," OCBC economists Lavanya Venkateswaran and Ahmad A Enver said. A widening current-account deficit, global market volatility and mixed domestic policy directions are unlikely to do the rupiah any favors, they warned. The flood of economic policy announcements made since President Prabowo's inauguration--including sharp budget cuts--will have a significant impact on Indonesia's economy, they added.

MALAYSIA

Malaysia's statistics department will release consumer inflation data for February on Friday, which will likely show that price growth remains in check in the Southeast Asian country.

Headline inflation may decrease to 1.6% in February, driven in part by favorable base effects, ANZ analysts said in a note. They expect inflation to remain manageable in 2025, supported by moderate domestic demand and lower commodity prices, and foresee no change in the monetary policy rate.

Trade data for February is also due on Thursday, and will be watched for signs of improvement after a surprisingly weak print in January. Malaysia's exports have been a source of strength for the economy but face risks in the year ahead as trade tariffs threaten to disrupt shipments of key products like electronics.

Any references to days are in local times.

Write to Jessica Fleetham at jessica.fleetham@wsj.com and Fabiana Negrin Ochoa at fabiana.negrinochoa@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

March 14, 2025 12:58 ET (16:58 GMT)

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