Jack in the Box Inc. (NASDAQ:JACK) will pay a dividend of $0.44 on the 8th of April. The dividend yield will be 5.6% based on this payment which is still above the industry average.

While the dividend yield is important for income investors, it is also important to consider any large share price moves, as this will generally outweigh any gains from distributions. Jack in the Box's stock price has reduced by 31% in the last 3 months, which is not ideal for investors and can explain a sharp increase in the dividend yield.

View our latest analysis for Jack in the Box

Jack in the Box's Future Dividend Projections Seem Positive

We like to see robust dividend yields, but that doesn't matter if the payment isn't sustainable. While Jack in the Box is not profitable, it is paying out less than 75% of its free cash flow, which means that there is plenty left over for reinvestment into the business. We generally think that cash flow is more important than accounting measures of profit, so we are fairly comfortable with the dividend at this level.

According to analysts, EPS should be several times higher next year. Assuming the dividend continues along recent trends, we think the payout ratio will be 49%, which makes us pretty comfortable with the sustainability of the dividend.

Dividend Volatility

While the company has been paying a dividend for a long time, it has cut the dividend at least once in the last 10 years. The dividend has gone from an annual total of $0.80 in 2015 to the most recent total annual payment of $1.76. This implies that the company grew its distributions at a yearly rate of about 8.2% over that duration. It's good to see the dividend growing at a decent rate, but the dividend has been cut at least once in the past. Jack in the Box might have put its house in order since then, but we remain cautious.

Dividend Growth Potential Is Shaky

Given that the dividend has been cut in the past, we need to check if earnings are growing and if that might lead to stronger dividends in the future. Jack in the Box's earnings per share has shrunk at 12% a year over the past five years. A sharp decline in earnings per share is not great from from a dividend perspective. Even conservative payout ratios can come under pressure if earnings fall far enough. However, the next year is actually looking up, with earnings set to rise. We would just wait until it becomes a pattern before getting too excited.

The Dividend Could Prove To Be Unreliable

In summary, while it's good to see that the dividend hasn't been cut, we are a bit cautious about Jack in the Box's payments, as there could be some issues with sustaining them into the future. The payments haven't been particularly stable and we don't see huge growth potential, but with the dividend well covered by cash flows it could prove to be reliable over the short term. We would probably look elsewhere for an income investment.

Companies possessing a stable dividend policy will likely enjoy greater investor interest than those suffering from a more inconsistent approach. However, there are other things to consider for investors when analysing stock performance. To that end, Jack in the Box has 3 warning signs (and 1 which shouldn't be ignored) we think you should know about. If you are a dividend investor, you might also want to look at our curated list of high yield dividend stocks.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.