EMERGING MARKETS-Latam markets mixed as investors assess new US tariff rhetoric

Reuters
03-14
EMERGING MARKETS-Latam markets mixed as investors assess new US tariff rhetoric

Latam stocks up 0.9%, FX up 0.4%

Peru interest rate decision awaited

Mexican peso hits highest level so far this year

Updates with mid-session trading

By Shashwat Chauhan and Purvi Agarwal

March 13 (Reuters) - Most Latin American currencies were mixed on Thursday, as jitters continued around U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff threats, and investors eyed fresh U.S. data amid growing concerns around an American economic slowdown.

In the latest twist of the tariff saga, Trump threatened to slap a 200% tariff on all wines and other alcoholic products coming out of Europe if the European Union does not scrap its planned tax on American whiskey.

Trump also said he was not going to change his mind on imposing sweeping reciprocal tariffs on all trading partners on April 2, amid intensive talks between the U.S. and Mexico, according to Mexican Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard.

The Mexican peso MXN=, which has been front and center in the whiplash of tariff uncertainty recently, was last up 0.4%. It hit 20.0553 per dollar, its highest level so far this year.

"The Mexican peso is demonstrating remarkable resilience amid negative signals from its industrial sector and economic uncertainties in the U.S.," said Quasar Elizundia, research strategist at Pepperstone.

"Global trade tensions and concerns about a potential U.S. recession could drive an increase in risk aversion, negatively impacting the currency in the short term."

Data showed industrial output in the country fell 0.4% in January from December and was 2.9% lower year-over-year.

Earlier this week, U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick had said nothing would stop Trump's expanded 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum until U.S. domestic production is strengthened, and that Trump will add copper to his trade protections.

However, U.S. producer prices were unexpectedly unchanged in February, but the cooling trend is unlikely to be sustained as tariffs on imports are expected to raise prices of goods in the coming months.

Traders expect about 73 basis points of U.S. rate cuts by December, with the first cut this year likely in June, according to LSEG data.

Fears of an American economic slowdown have weighed on sentiment lately, with S&P Global Ratings researchers saying that if Trump's trade policies hit U.S. growth, Latin American economies could suffer because of their strong "trade linkages" to the United States.

Brazil's real BRL= was flat. Data showed services sector in the economy fell slightly more than expected in January.

Colombia's peso COP= weakened 0.5%, while Chile's peso CLP= appreciated 0.3%.

MSCI's index for Latin American currencies .MILA00000CUS was up 0.4%, while the stocks gauge .MILA00000PUS advanced 0.9%.

Regional equities were mixed, with heavyweight Brazilian shares .BVSP up 1.5%, and Argentina's main stock index .MERV down 1.3%.

Still, the regional equities have broadly fared better than their U.S. counterparts so far this month, with the MSCI gauge up more than 1% this month while the S&P 500 .SPX briefly flirted with slipping into a correction.

Later in the day, Peru's central bank is widely anticipated to hold its interest rate steady at 4.75%.

A trade group report showed foreigners added nearly $16 billion to their EM portfolios in February, with investors loading up on Chinese stocks and debt across developing economies.

Key Latin American stock indexes and currencies:

Equities

Latest

Daily % change

MSCI Emerging Markets .MSCIEF

1106.08

-0.45

MSCI LatAm .MILA00000PUS

2021.61

0.91

Brazil Bovespa .BVSP

125743.32

1.52

Mexico IPC .MXX

51916.51

-0.24

Chile IPSA .SPIPSA

7451.41

0.81

Argentina Merval .MERV

2243511.35

-1.30

Colombia COLCAP .COLCAP

1591.16

-0.59

Currencies

Latest

Daily % change

Brazil real BRL=

5.7997

-0.03

Mexico peso MXN=

20.0957

0.38

Chile peso CLP=

933.88

0.28

Colombia peso COP=

4122.5

-0.46

Peru sol PEN=

3.668

-0.19

Argentina peso (interbank) ARS=RASL

1066.25

-0.02

Argentina peso (parallel) ARSB=

1215

1.23

(Reporting by Shashwat Chauhan and Purvi Agarwal in Bengaluru; editing by Philippa Fletcher and Alistair Bell)

((Shashwat.Chauhan@thomsonreuters.com;))

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