Cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen has provided a roadmap for Bitcoin's BTC/USD recovery, emphasizing that broader market trends, particularly a local bottom for the S&P 500's, will play a crucial role in crypto market movements.

What Happened: In a podcast on March 16, Cowen suggested that Bitcoin's current downturn could extend until late March before a potential rebound in the second quarter.

He noted that Bitcoin's price action in Q1 is unusual, as it has closed below the bull market support band for multiple weeks—something that has typically happened in Q3 of past cycles.

"The big difference this time is that it’s actually happening in Q1, not Q3," Cowen explained, drawing comparisons to 2017, when Bitcoin "did not really lose its bull market support band at all" during a similar market phase.

Bitcoin's S&P 500 Correlation

In another podcast, Cowen pointed to historical S&P 500 seasonality, particularly in post-election years, as a key influence on Bitcoin's price movements.

He analyzed data dating back to 1928 and noted that "the S&P has unfavorable seasonality really up until about the end of March" in these periods.

He also identified March options expiration as a likely turning point, stating that Bitcoin's local low will likely occur "sometime around March options expiration, plus or minus a week or two."

Cowen maintains that Bitcoin's overall market structure remains intact as long as it stays above its 2024 high of $73,000.

A drop below this level, he warned, would introduce greater uncertainty into the market.

Also Read: Peter Schiff Slams Bitcoin ETFs, Calls Selling Gold For BTC ‘Worst-Timed Trade In History’

What's Next: Looking ahead, Cowen expressed concerns about renewed weakness in Q3, citing potential Bank of Japan (BOJ) rate hikes as a risk factor.

“The Bank of Japan is expected to raise rates again in the third quarter of the year,” he said, noting that "the last three times the BOJ raised rates, it ultimately led to a market selloff."

For traders watching technical levels, Cowen pointed to the bull market support band, which currently sits between $88,000 and $94,000. These levels, he suggested, could be tested during any counter-trend rally in the coming weeks.

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