Investing.com -- Citi analysts upgraded Boston Beer (NYSE:SAM) to Buy while downgrading Constellation Brands (NYSE:STZ) to Neutral in separate notes Thursday, citing diverging topline growth trends and external risks.

For Boston Beer, Citi sees "a clearer path towards volume/topline growth" following stronger-than-expected Q4/2025TD results and the upcoming national launch of Sun Cruiser in 1H’25 with significant advertising support. 

"Post three years of negative depletions (2022-24) on the cycling of the hard seltzer boom, we see the potential for a return to volume growth in 2025 with slightly improving Truly trends, normalizing Twisted Tea growth, and the Sun Cruiser contribution," Citi wrote. 

Additionally, the firm expects gross margins (GM) to recover to the high-40s%, helping drive earnings upside. SAM shares trade at ~22x CY’25 EPS, below historical levels, and Citi believes there is potential for re-rating.

In contrast, Citi downgraded Constellation Brands, citing "too many external headwinds." 

The firm pointed to "Hispanic consumer weakness, a soft US beer category, as well as looming tariff risk." 

STZ’s beer topline growth, which averaged ~12% since 2014, has slowed to ~3% in the last two quarters, and Citi forecasts a -2% decline in F4Q’25, the first negative number since acquiring its Mexican beer portfolio.

"We believe the weakness in Hispanic consumers could persist, making it harder for STZ to gain incremental shelf space as its brands’ velocities are slowing," Citi noted, adding that this could lead to lower medium-term growth targets and reduced capacity utilization. 

With STZ’s valuation at ~13x FY’26 EPS, well below historical levels, Citi sees a low probability of a re-rating given the "slowing topline and looming tariff risk."

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