Coinbase’s stock is expected to rise sharply as the U.S. shifts toward more crypto-friendly policies under President Donald Trump. Investment firm Bernstein has given Coinbase an outperform rating, setting a price target of $310—64% higher than its current price of $188. Analyst Gautam Chhugani attributes this optimism to the administration’s push for blockchain innovation and regulatory clarity, which could benefit Coinbase as one of the largest crypto exchanges.

The administration has already made moves to integrate Bitcoin into the financial system, including the creation of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. This reserve will initially be filled with Bitcoin seized in criminal cases, with plans to expand its holdings in a budget-neutral way. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong, who met with White House officials on March 7, called this a major step forward and suggested other governments might follow. He also announced that Coinbase plans to hire over 1,000 new employees in the U.S. due to the administration’s support for the industry.

Despite Bernstein’s positive outlook, analysts remain divided. Out of 26 analysts covering Coinbase, 11 rate the stock as a buy, while 15 recommend holding. The company’s stock has struggled in 2025, dropping 24% since the start of the year as post-election momentum faded. However, Chhugani predicts revenue growth driven by non-trading services such as stablecoins and staking, expecting these areas to expand at a 31% annual rate.

The Trump administration has also appointed venture capitalist David Sacks as the nation’s first “Crypto Czar,” reinforcing its commitment to pro-crypto policies. A stablecoin bill is expected within the first half of the year, followed by legislation addressing digital asset securities and market structure. This could introduce competition from banks and fintech firms, but Bernstein remains confident that a strong market and U.S. leadership in crypto will outweigh any pricing pressures.

Meanwhile, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has launched a new task force led by Commissioner Hester Peirce to create crypto-specific regulations. Coinbase has also received Financial Intelligence Unit registration, allowing it to resume operations in India. Some in the crypto community have criticized the government’s budget-neutral approach to the Bitcoin reserve, but Armstrong defended the strategy, emphasizing its long-term benefits. While Coinbase has provided custody and trading services for the government before, no decision has been made on who will manage the reserve.

Bitcoin’s price did not immediately react to the reserve announcement, which Armstrong admitted was surprising. However, he remains optimistic, arguing that the U.S. government’s long-term commitment to holding Bitcoin could support higher prices over time. Trump himself has confirmed that any crypto assets acquired by the government will not be sold.