Sentiment on Tesla (TSLA) shares has turned negative amid consumer backlash on Chief Executive Elon Musk's "political activities," and the next leg of the Tesla trade will depend on the company's ability to replace a portion of its consumer base, Oppenheimer said in a Tuesday note.
The analysts also said the automaker will have to show progress on key autonomy and artificial intelligence initiatives.
Tesla's used car prices have declined more sharply than competitors and despite a slight increase in the last 30 days, prices remain soft overall, the analysts said.
The upcoming Model Y refresh and an entry-level variant targeting China will test the strength of Tesla's brand and product demand, Oppenheimer analysts added. Limited demand for the updated Model Y would be a negative signal for the company's stock.
The firm said that Tesla's full self-driving software has improved, with the latest version showing 233 miles between critical failures in city driving, up from 104 miles in the previous version. However, performance remains weak in poor weather and lags behind competitors.
Oppenheimer has a perform rating on the stock.
Shares were down 6% in recent trading.
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