It's nice to see the AMA Group Limited (ASX:AMA) share price up 14% in a week. But that doesn't change the fact that the returns over the last three years have been stomach churning. To wit, the share price sky-dived 85% in that time. So we're relieved for long term holders to see a bit of uplift. But the more important question is whether the underlying business can justify a higher price still. We really hope anyone holding through that price crash has a diversified portfolio. Even when you lose money, you don't have to lose the lesson.
On a more encouraging note the company has added AU$29m to its market cap in just the last 7 days, so let's see if we can determine what's driven the three-year loss for shareholders.
Given that AMA Group didn't make a profit in the last twelve months, we'll focus on revenue growth to form a quick view of its business development. Shareholders of unprofitable companies usually desire strong revenue growth. That's because it's hard to be confident a company will be sustainable if revenue growth is negligible, and it never makes a profit.
Over three years, AMA Group grew revenue at 1.6% per year. Given it's losing money in pursuit of growth, we are not really impressed with that. But the share price crash at 23% per year does seem a bit harsh! While we're definitely wary of the stock, after that kind of performance, it could be an over-reaction. Before considering a purchase, take a look at the losses the company is racking up.
You can see how earnings and revenue have changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).
We consider it positive that insiders have made significant purchases in the last year. Even so, future earnings will be far more important to whether current shareholders make money. So we recommend checking out this free report showing consensus forecasts
We'd be remiss not to mention the difference between AMA Group's total shareholder return (TSR) and its share price return. Arguably the TSR is a more complete return calculation because it accounts for the value of dividends (as if they were reinvested), along with the hypothetical value of any discounted capital that have been offered to shareholders. Its history of dividend payouts mean that AMA Group's TSR, which was a 79% drop over the last 3 years, was not as bad as the share price return.
Investors in AMA Group had a tough year, with a total loss of 1.1%, against a market gain of about 4.6%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Unfortunately, longer term shareholders are suffering worse, given the loss of 11% doled out over the last five years. We'd need to see some sustained improvements in the key metrics before we could muster much enthusiasm. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand AMA Group better, we need to consider many other factors. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for AMA Group that you should be aware of.
There are plenty of other companies that have insiders buying up shares. You probably do not want to miss this free list of undervalued small cap companies that insiders are buying.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Australian exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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