By Andrew Bary

What's the most defensive stock in the S&P 500? Many investors think of defensive names such as AT&T and Verizon Communications, cigarette maker Altria, or Johnson & Johnson, which have resilient business models and solid, above-market dividends. But it turns out the winner is options trading leader Cboe Global Markets.

Using data from Barron's parent Dow Jones, we looked at the top S&P 500 performers during the index's 10 worst days in the past eight months, including March 10, when the index fell 2.6%. Cboe shares rose 1.9% that day to $217.06, within 2% of its record high. Cboe rose in all 10 of the index's biggest down days since July. No. 2 is insurer Cigna, up nine of those days.

Six stocks gained on eight of those dates -- American Water Works, Crown Castle, Centene, Hershey, Altria, and Verizon. Utilities, food, healthcare, and tobacco are traditionally defensive, with less economically sensitive earnings and above-average dividend yields. This year these sectors are up, while the S&P 500 is down 3.6%.

For Cboe, big down days often mean high options volume. The Cboe has the leading position in U.S. equity options, with a roughly 30% market share so far this year. KBW analyst Kyle Voigt wrote that based on options volume, the company's first-quarter earnings could top the consensus estimate. Voigt rates the shares at Market Perform with a $216 target price.

Write to Andrew Bary at andrew.bary@barrons.com

Last Week

Markets

The OECD cut its growth forecast due to President Donald Trump's trade policies. The biggest victims: Canada and Mexico. Israeli airstrikes pounded Gaza, shattering the cease-fire. Oil and gold rose; retail spending missed expectations. Stocks edged up on Monday, then fell on Tuesday led by techs. The Federal Reserve held rates steady but was cautious in its outlook; stocks were volatile ahead of big options expirations on Friday. On the week, the Dow industrials rose 1.2%; the S&P 500, 0.5%; and the Nasdaq Composite, 0.17%.

Companies

Berkshire Hathaway's Warren Buffett said he was adding to stakes in five Japanese trading houses. BYD revealed a fast-charging technology for electric vehicles: five minutes for 292 miles. Canada is reviewing its purchase of 88 Lockheed Martin F-35 jet fighters. Nvidia said it would work with General Motors on self-driving vehicles and with telecom companies on new 6G networks.

Deals

The Financial Times reported that Alphabet is spinning off Taara, its laser-based internet business, to compete with SpaceX's Starlink. Alphabet also announced a $32 billion all-cash deal for Israeli cybersecurity start-up Wiz... PepsiCo said it was buying prebiotic soda brand Poppi for $1.95 billion... QXO agreed to buy Beacon Roofing Supply for $11 billion, including debt...SoftBank is buying chip designer Ampere Computing for $6.5 billion...Buyout investor Bill Chisholm is buying the Boston Celtics for $6.1 billion, a U.S. sports team record.

Next Week

Monday 3/24

S&P Global releases both its Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers' Indexes for March. Consensus estimates are for a 51.5 reading for the Manufacturing PMI and a 50.9 reading for the Services PMI. This compares with 52.7 and 51, respectively, in February.

Tuesday 3/25

The Conference Board releases its Consumer Confidence Index for March. Expectations are for a 94 reading, about four points fewer than previously. In February, the index registered its largest monthly decline since August 2021.

Wednesday 3/26

The Census Bureau releases the durable goods report for February. The consensus call is for new orders of durable manufactured goods to decline 1% month over month to $283 billion.

Friday 3/28

The Bureau of Economic Analysis releases the personal consumption expenditures price index for February. Economists forecast a 2.5% year-over-year increase, matching the January figure. The core PCE price index is expected to rise 2.7%, one-tenth of a percentage point more than previously.

The Numbers

25%

Reduction in U.S. drug overdoses in the 12 months ended October 2024, compared to the prior year.

$16 B

Short-seller profits on Tesla stock after its Dec. 17 closing high; shares lost $700 billion in value since then.

40

Record month-to-month percentage-point equity-allocation decline in a March BofA fund manager survey.

$22 B

Net inflows to short-term Treasury funds between early January and March 14, most in two years.

Write to Robert Teitelman at bob.teitelman@dowjones.com

This content was created by Barron's, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. Barron's is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.

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March 21, 2025 19:02 ET (23:02 GMT)

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