With the business potentially at an important milestone, we thought we'd take a closer look at Geron Corporation's (NASDAQ:GERN) future prospects. Geron Corporation, a commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the development of therapeutics products for oncology. On 31 December 2024, the US$1.1b market-cap company posted a loss of US$175m for its most recent financial year. As path to profitability is the topic on Geron's investors mind, we've decided to gauge market sentiment. Below we will provide a high-level summary of the industry analysts’ expectations for the company.

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According to the 8 industry analysts covering Geron, the consensus is that breakeven is near. They expect the company to post a final loss in 2025, before turning a profit of US$20m in 2026. So, the company is predicted to breakeven just over a year from today. What rate will the company have to grow year-on-year in order to breakeven on this date? Using a line of best fit, we calculated an average annual growth rate of 63%, which is rather optimistic! If this rate turns out to be too aggressive, the company may become profitable much later than analysts predict.

Given this is a high-level overview, we won’t go into details of Geron's upcoming projects, though, keep in mind that typically biotechs, depending on the stage of product development, have irregular periods of cash flow. This means, large upcoming growth rates are not abnormal as the company is beginning to reap the benefits of earlier investments.

Check out our latest analysis for Geron

One thing we would like to bring into light with Geron is its relatively high level of debt. Generally, the rule of thumb is debt shouldn’t exceed 40% of your equity, which in Geron's case is 42%. A higher level of debt requires more stringent capital management which increases the risk in investing in the loss-making company.

Next Steps:

There are key fundamentals of Geron which are not covered in this article, but we must stress again that this is merely a basic overview. For a more comprehensive look at Geron, take a look at Geron's company page on Simply Wall St. We've also compiled a list of relevant factors you should further examine:

1. Valuation: What is Geron worth today? Has the future growth potential already been factored into the price? The intrinsic value infographic in our free research report helps visualize whether Geron is currently mispriced by the market.
2. Management Team: An experienced management team on the helm increases our confidence in the business – take a look at who sits on Geron’s board and the CEO’s background.
3. Other High-Performing Stocks: Are there other stocks that provide better prospects with proven track records? Explore our free list of these great stocks here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.