Updates with Barclays' S&P 500, FX, 10-yr yield, CPI forecasts; BofA's 10-year yield, CPI, FX & GDP forecasts; JP Morgan's U.S. GDP & inflation forecast; Berenberg's FX & CPI forecast; Updates graphic
March 28 (Reuters) - Uncertainties around U.S. policies could slow global economic growth modestly in 2025, according to major brokerages. They expect U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs to fuel volatility in global markets, raising inflationary pressures, which could limit major central banks from easing their monetary policy.
Following are the forecasts from some top banks on economic growth, inflation and the performance of major asset classes in 2025.
Forecasts for stocks, currencies and bonds:
Brokerage | S&P 500 target | U.S. 10-year yield target | EUR/USD | USD/JPY | USD/CNY |
UBS Global Research | 6400 | 4.25% | 0.99 | 150 | 7.60 |
Goldman Sachs | 6200 | 4.4% | 1.02 (next 12 months) | 152 (next 12 months) | 7.35 (next 12 months) |
UBS Global Wealth Management | 6600 | 4.00% | 1.12 | 145 | 7.50 |
Wells Fargo Investment Institute | 6500-6700 | 4.50%-5.00% | 0.98-1.02 | 158-162 | |
6750 | 4.50% (Q4'25) | 1.09 | 146.3 | 7.28 | |
Deutsche Bank | 7000 | 4.7% (Q4'25) | 1.03 (Q4'25) | 7.50 | |
Nomura | 4.25% | 1.03 | 135 | 6.93 | |
6500 | 4% (Q4'25) | 1.08 (Q4'25) | 141 (Q4'25) | 7.60 (Q4'25) | |
J.P.Morgan | 6500 | 4.10% (Q3'25) | 1.14 (Q4'25) | 150 | 7.47 |
BofA Global Research | 6666 | 4.50% | 1.15 | 165 | 7.30 |
Wells Fargo | 4.46% | 0.98 (Q4'25) | 154 (Q4'25) | 7.60 (Q4'25) | |
BMO Capital Markets | 6700 | ||||
Jefferies | 6000 | 4.43% | |||
Barclays | 5900 | 4.00% (Q4'25) | 1.06 (Q4'25) | 144 (Q4'25) | 7.50 (Q4'25) |
Piper Sandler | 6600 | ||||
Berenberg | 4.90% | 1.10 | 140 | 7.30 | |
4.65% (Q4'25) | 1.00 (Q4'25) | 156 (Q4'25) | |||
Canaccord Genuity | 6325 | ||||
Citigroup | 6500 | 4.20% (Q4'25) | 1.05 | 139 | |
ING | 1.02 | 160 | 7.35 | ||
HSBC | 6700 | ||||
Evercore ISI | 6800 | ||||
Peel Hunt | 4.15% | 1.06 (Q4'25) | |||
RBC Capital Markets | 6200 |
U.S. Inflation:
U.S. inflation (annual Y/Y for 2025) | ||
Brokerage | Headline CPI | Core PCE |
Goldman Sachs | 3.1% | 2.59% |
J.P.Morgan | 3.0% | 2.6% |
2.8% (Q4/Q4) | 2.5% (Q4/Q4) | |
Barclays | 3.0% | 2.5% |
Wells Fargo | 3.0% | 2.8% |
2.3% | 2.5% | |
Deutsche Bank | 2.8% (Q4/Q4) | 2.6% (Q4/Q4) |
Wells Fargo Investment Institute | 3.3% | |
UBS Global Wealth Management | 2.6% | |
Citigroup | 2.5% | 2.5% |
BofA Global Research | 2.9% | 2.3% (Q4/Q4) |
Berenberg | 2.9% | 2.6% |
2.3% | ||
Nomura | 3.0% | 2.7% |
ING | 2.4% | |
Wells Fargo | 3.0% | 2.6% |
Jefferies | 2.3% | 2.5% |
UBS Global Research | 2.7% | |
Peel Hunt | 2.6% | |
Real GDP Growth:
Real GDP growth forecasts for 2025 | ||||||
Brokerage | GLOBAL | U.S. | CHINA | EURO AREA | UK | INDIA |
UBS Global Research | 3.0% | 2.0% | 4.0% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 6.3% |
Goldman Sachs | 2.5% | 2.0% | 4.5% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 6.4% |
Barclays | 2.9% | 1.5% | 4.3% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 7.0% |
2.9% | 2.1% | 4.5% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 6.5% | |
J.P.Morgan | 2.4% | 1.6% | 4.3% | 1.0% | 1% | 6.0% |
UBS Global Wealth Management | 2.9% | 1.9% | 4.0% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 6.3% |
Wells Fargo | 2.7% | 2.3% | 4.5% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 5.9% |
Societe Generale | 3.3% | 2.2% | 4.7% | 1.0% | 1.6% | |
Citigroup | 2.3% | 1.4% | 4.7% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 6.7% |
Nomura | 2.9% | 2.2 | 4.5% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 5.8% |
BofA Global Research | 3.1% | 2.0% | 4.5% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 6.6% |
Deutsche Bank | 3.1% | 2.5% | 4.8% | 0.8% | 1% | 6.5% |
Wells Fargo Investment Institute | 2.6% | 2.5% | ||||
Berenberg | 2.8% | 2.6% | 5.0% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 6.5% |
2.1% | 4.5% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 6.2% (March 2026) | ||
Peel Hunt | 1.9% | 4.9% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 6.8% | |
ING | 2.0% | 4.6% | 0.7% | 1.4% | ||
Jefferies | 2.4% (Q4/Q4) | |||||
* UBS Global Research and UBS Global Wealth Management are distinct, independent divisions in UBS Group
* Wells Fargo Investment Institute is a wholly owned subsidiary of Wells Fargo Bank
Brokerages' 2025 forecast for S&P 500 index target https://reut.rs/4fY5JjZ
(Compiled by the Broker Research team in Bengaluru; Edited by Anil D'Silva, Tasim Zahid, Rashmi Aich and Shounak Dasgupta)
((Siddarth.s@thomsonreuters.com))
免責聲明：投資有風險，本文並非投資建議，以上內容不應被視為任何金融產品的購買或出售要約、建議或邀請，作者或其他用戶的任何相關討論、評論或帖子也不應被視為此類內容。本文僅供一般參考，不考慮您的個人投資目標、財務狀況或需求。TTM對信息的準確性和完整性不承擔任何責任或保證，投資者應自行研究並在投資前尋求專業建議。