Copper prices are often a good recession indicator -- but Donald Trump's tariffs mean it might be time to stop putting much stock in them.

The malleable metal, used in everything from buildings to cars, has long been seen as a reliable barometer for how the economy is doing. High prices tend to signal that construction and manufacturing activity is picking up.

So in normal times, the recent price movements of "Dr. Copper" would be seen as a cause for celebration. Futures for March delivery settled at a record $5.18 a pound Tuesday, surpassing the previous all-time high set last May.

But this rally is all about Trump's trade policies, rather than rising demand for wires and pipes. The President has threatened 25% tariffs on copper, so traders have responded by stockpiling the metal ahead of "Liberation Day" -- the April 2 deadline when many of the White House's levies are expected to take effect.

Analysts don't expect the surge to last long. "As this is likely to be mainly a case of pulling demand forward, the price effect can be expected to reverse at a later stage," Commerzbank's Thu Lan Nguyen wrote in a note to clients. He added that the reversal is likely to be even sharper if Trump's trade policies end up weighing on the U.S. economy.

Copper mining stocks have surged this year -- Freeport-McMoRan is up 13% in 2025, while Southern Copper Corporation has gained 12%, Rio Tinto American depositary receipts are up 6.8%, and BHP Group ADRs have climbed 2.4%.

The spike in copper prices has come at a time when investors are fretting that tariffs could spark a flare-up in inflation and drag down growth. U.S. consumer confidence plummeted to its lowest level in more than four years this month, according to data published by the Conference Board on Tuesday.

Some market participants are even starting to use the dreaded R-word. Searches for "recession" have hit a multiyear high on Google Trends, and the number of mentions by the press has tripled compared with January, according to The Wall Street Journal.

Surging copper prices would usually be a reason to feel a little more cheerful. But in the age of Trump 2.0, this rally probably says very little about how the economy is doing.