Economic warning signals are flashing red but it's not too late for the U.S. to avoid a recession.

Consumer confidence tumbled again in March for a fourth consecutive month amid fears about inflation and the impact of tariffs. Perhaps more worryingly, the Conference Board's Expectations Index slumped to a 12-year low of 65.2, which it noted was "well below the threshold of 80 that usually signals a recession ahead. The index is based on consumers' outlook for income, business and labor market conditions.

Economic surveys for March have been notably bad. The Philadelphia Fed's nonmanufacturing business outlook fell to its lowest level since the early days of the Covid-19 pandemic. Major U.S. airlines have also warned of a slowdown in travel spending.

The silver lining is that for now most of the weakest economic data are in the form of surveys reflecting confidence or expectations, rather than hard evidence. Headlines around President Donald Trump's tariffs are clearly affecting sentiment but a recession is only likely if that persists and translates into a prolonged pullback in spending by consumers and businesses.

That means there is still time, and scope, for the narrative to change and for confidence to be restored. The U.S. economy is also remarkably resilient -- which the composite Purchasing Managers' Index for March showed as it rose after two months of declines.

There's more hope. Stock markets in Asia and Europe are performing well this year, which certainly doesn't portend a global recession.

The U.S. stock market was able to look past Tuesday's disappointing data because Trump suggested his reciprocal tariffs on April 2 may be less severe than expected. For all the concern about the economic data, positive developments and clarity on tariffs can still stop the slump.

-- Callum Keown

***

Consumer Confidence Slips Again as Inflation Fears Rise

The latest data show that Americans are taking an increasingly grim view of the economy and their own financial outlooks as uncertainty from the Trump administration's tariff hikes and other policy changes drags on. Consumer confidence fell for the fourth consecutive month and was worse than expected.

   -- The Conference Board's consumer confidence index registered the lowest 
      reading in four years and leaves the index with a 20-point decline since 
      the election in November. The Board's expectations index, which measures 
      consumers' short-term economic outlook, reached its lowest level in 12 
      years. 
 
   -- Consumers' views of the current business climate also softened, though 
      survey respondents' assessment of ongoing labor conditions improved 
      slightly from February to March. And consumers reported a negative 
      outlook about the stock market for the first time since the end of 2023. 
 
   -- Oren Klachkin, Nationwide's financial market economist, said investors 
      should watch for whether the deterioration in the so-called soft 
      sentiment data will translate into weaker hard data such as consumer 
      spending or employment conditions. 
 
   -- Average year-ahead inflation expectations rose to 6.3% in March from 5.8% 
      in February out of concerns for high prices for staple products such as 
      eggs and the effects of higher tariffs. Santander's Stephen Stanley said 
      the data underscore how much rapid fire policy changes have rattled 
      households. 

What's Next: Fed Gov. Adrianna Kugler said Tuesday that she's paying "close attention" to the higher inflation expectations, especially in light of the higher inflation in recent years. Yet she believes that rate policy is well-positioned to react to any changes.

-- Megan Leonhardt

***

Waymo Is Bringing Driverless Robotaxis to Nation's Capital

Alphabet-owned Waymo announced plans to expand its driverless taxi operations to Washington, D.C., in 2026 as it continues to raise the competitive stakes in the autonomous driving business. Rival Tesla is working on rolling out its own robotaxis sometime this year.

   -- Waymo has been testing its robotaxis in the capital region since last 
      year and is working on getting clearance from local officials to operate 
      driverless vehicles there. Washington currently allows autonomous 
      operations only with a trained specialist behind the wheel. 
 
   -- Waymo One currently operates in San Francisco, Phoenix, Los Angeles, and 
      Austin, and says it provides more than 200,000 fully autonomous paid 
      trips each week. It is headed to Atlanta later this year and Miami in 
      early 2026, before expanding to Washington. 
 
   -- The Trump administration wants to develop national standards for testing 
      and operating self-driving vehicles that would supersede differing state 
      standards, potentially boosting Waymo's and Tesla's ambitions in the 
      business. 
 
   -- Tesla is developing its robotaxis amid struggling sales. In Europe, its 
      February sales dropped 40% from the same time a year ago. Tesla sales 
      there during the first two months of 2025 fell 43% from the same time a 
      year ago while European EV sales overall increased 31%. 

What's Next: Waymo says it has logged more than 50 million miles of fully autonomous driving nationwide through December 2024. Waymo Co-CEO Tekedra Mawakana has said that the U.S. could lead the world in autonomous driving, and that having a national standard could increase safety.

-- Janet H. Cho

***

Shell Wants to Be a Behemoth in Liquefied Natural Gas

Shell, already one of the world's largest suppliers of liquefied natural gas, is planning to invest heavily in the product as its oil production stays flat through 2030. The British energy giant sees LNG as one of the most durable businesses as economies transition away from fossil fuels.

   -- Shell expects its LNG sales to grow by 4% to 5% a year through the end of 
      the decade, while oil is expected to retreat from nearly half of Shell's 
      sales to less than 40% by 2030. Though it trails behind today, Shell said 
      its natural gas sales will roughly equal oil by 2030. 
 
   -- Oil isn't going away soon, but its growth trajectory looks much worse 
      than that of natural gas. There are increasing signs that oil demand in 
      countries such as China is already at its peak. Bank of America 
      strategist Francisco Blanch projects that global oil use may struggle to 
      grow above 1% annually through 2030. 
 
   -- Shell expects LNG demand to jump 60% by 2040, as Asian countries switch 
      their electricity generation from coal to gas and emerging businesses 
      such as artificial intelligence make natural gas power plants more 
      attractive. LNG is becoming a more important source of gas to several 
      countries that don't have their own production. 
 
   -- Opportunities in renewable energy such as offshore wind look bleak after 
      the Trump administration cut federal support. And Shell is also backing 
      away from some low-carbon businesses and chemicals production, saying it 
      may close or sell plants around the world. 

What's Next: Shell CEO Wael Sawan told investors that the "fundamentals look challenged" for biofuels for the next several years. It will spend less than 10% of its capital on low-carbon projects through 2030, a pullback criticized by some environmentally-oriented investors.

-- Avi Salzman

***

GameStop Confirms Bitcoin Plans as It Closes More Stores

GameStop, the videogame retailer that has been trying to find a new path to growth, confirmed on Tuesday that it would begin investing in Bitcoin. The move comes after speculation that it was considering a move into cryptocurrency as it closes stores.

   -- GameStop said in a filing that a portion of its cash or future debt and 
      equity issuances may be invested in Bitcoin and that it had not set a 
      maximum on the amount of Bitcoin it could accumulate or sell. 
 
   -- The announcement came as GameStop announced fourth quarter net sales of 
      $1.28 billion and adjusted earnings of 29 cents a share. Revenue fell 
      short of expectations, but it beat on the profit number. It completed its 
      divestiture in Italy and the wind-down of store operations in Germany. 
 
   -- Wedbush analyst Michael Pachter said GameStop's entry into trading cards 
      and crypto followed its last two attempts at a turnaround, but the 
      company still faces "many challenges ahead." 
 
   -- The Bitcoin strategy may be an "unsubtle attempt" to emulate 
      MicroStrategy, Pachter said. In February, GameStop CEO Ryan Cohen posted 
      a photo of himself on social media with Michael Saylor, co-founder and 
      executive chairman of MicroStrategy, Bitcoin's largest institutional 
      holder. 

What's Next: GameStop has been branching out in other areas. It recently announced a deal with digital financial services company Zip Co. to let U.S. customers pay in installments for their online and in-store gaming purchases.

-- Janet H. Cho

***

Here's a Cheap Way to Buy Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway

There's a way to buy Berkshire Hathaway, the conglomerate run by billionaire Warren Buffett, at a significant discount. A handful of other blue-chip stocks are thrown in as a bonus.

   -- The $2.1 billion SRH Total Return fund has about 41% of its assets in 
      Berkshire stock. Its next three holdings -- JPMorgan Chase, Yum! Brands, 
      and Enterprise Products -- account for another 24%. SRH shares, which 
      trade around $16.85, changed hands recently at a 23% discount to their 
      net asset value of nearly $22 a share. 
 
   -- The closed-end fund's controlling shareholder is Stewart Horejsi, 87, 
      whose family owns nearly half the stock, which trades under the ticker 
      STEW to reflect Horejsi's importance. Closed-end funds issue a fixed 
      number of shares and then trade like stocks at a premium or discount to 
      their asset value based on investor demand. Horejsi retired from running 
      the fund in 2022. 
 
   -- Horejsi, born in Kansas, read about Warren Buffett in the book The Money 
      Masters by John Train decades ago and began investing in Berkshire stock 
      when it traded around $300 a share in 1980. The Class A stock finished 
      Tuesday at about $793,000 after hitting a record of nearly $800,000 in 
      the session. 
 
   -- The SRE fund is narrowly ahead of the S&P 500 index over the past year 
      (ending in February), with a 19% return based on the share price, helped 
      by Berkshire's outperformance. It is nearly two percentage points behind 
      the index over the past three and five years, reflecting an 
      underweighting in the big tech stocks that have dominated the market. 

What's Next: Jacob Hemmer, a co-manager of STEW, said that while Berkshire stock may be looking more fully priced now, the fund likes the company's long-term prospects even after the Buffett era ends. Buffett turns 95 in August.

-- Andrew Bary

***

Dear Quentin,

My 81-year-old mother lives one mile away from me. I have not been inside her house for probably a year or more. She doesn't want me in because she says it's too messy and she doesn't want me to see it. Here is what I do know: The last time I was in her place it smelled horrible (her dog frequently "goes" in the house) and it was very messy and dirty. About four weeks ago she fell and couldn't get back up (she has artificial knees and she is also obese). She asked my husband to come help her up.

My husband is a bit of a slob so when he says it's bad, it's bad. I took several bags of garbage out for four weeks. Last week she fell again -- she tripped over the dog -- and did not want me to come in, but she assured me she'd been working hard but it was not really noticeable yet. She goes to the gym three times a week to try to stay active. She does her own grocery shopping, though from the number of boxes my husband saw we assume she does a bit of shopping online. She pays her bills on time and shows no sign of diminished capacity.

Here is my dilemma: She lives in a condo. What if the management company ever had to access her unit? Is it elder abuse to let her live in squalor like that? She avoids all confrontation as she says it makes her blood pressure go up. I am afraid if I push too hard that I could give her a heart attack. Could social services end up involved? I fear eventually the smell could start to permeate into other units. I want her to maintain her independence, but I also don't want to get into any legal or financial trouble for failing to act.

What should we do?

-- Lost Daughter

Read the Moneyist's response here.

-- Quentin Fottrell

***

-- Newsletter edited by Liz Moyer, Patrick O'Donnell, Rupert Steiner

This content was created by Barron's, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. Barron's is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

March 26, 2025 06:57 ET (10:57 GMT)

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